The real-time Advanced Ionospheric Data Assimilation (AIDA) model

The real-time Advanced Ionospheric Data Assimilation (AIDA) model | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 10 September 2025 V1 Latest version Share on The real-time Advanced Ionospheric Data Assimilation (AIDA) model Authors : Benjamin Reid 0000-0002-7998-1037 [email protected] , David R. Themens 0000-0003-2567-8187 , Sean Elvidge 0000-0003-2846-0730 , Mohammad Afraz Ahmed , Warrick Ball , and M Mainul Hoque Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175752961.13347911/v1 Published Space Weather Version of record Peer review timeline 412 views 277 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract The Advanced Ionospheric Data Assimilation (AIDA) is a real-time data assimilation model of global 3D ionosphere and plasmasphere electron density. Changes in the local space environment can occur on very short timescales, particularly during disturbed geomagnetic conditions. This space weather has an impact on many modern systems including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals and High Frequency radio communications. To provide an ionospheric specification in real-time, AIDA ingests data streams from over 2000 GNSS receivers, along with ionosonde-derived characteristics. These measurements are assimilated using a particle filter into the empirical NeQuick ionosphere model and Neustrelitz Plasmasphere Model (NPSM). The GNSS receiver Differential Code Biases (DCBs) are solved self-consistently using Rao-Blackwellized particle filtering. AIDA consists of a real-time Ultrarapid model and a near-real-time Rapid model at a 90-minute latency. These models are also forecast six hours into the future, meaning AIDA produces two separate nowcasts of the current ionospheric state (Ultrarapid and the 90-minute forecast of the Rapid product). AIDA is assessed using an operational validation program which shows that the Rapid 90-minute forecast model provides the best nowcast performance during quiet conditions, with improvements of ~12% in foF2 and hmF2 root mean square error (RMSE) when compared to the background. The Ultrarapid model provides the best nowcast during disturbed conditions, with improvements of 27%-38% in foF2 RMSE. Both the Rapid and Ultrarapid models are also validated using in situ electron density measurements from Swarm, showing overall global improvement in electron density specification. Supplementary Material File (1047979_0_merged_1757365347.pdf) Download 6.64 MB File (aida supplementary material.pdf) Download 1.88 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 10 September 2025 Peer review timeline Published Space Weather Version of Record 14 Feb 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Keywords atmospheric sciences data assimilation geodesy geomagnetic activity geophysics ionosphere operational plasmasphere real-time Authors Affiliations Benjamin Reid 0000-0002-7998-1037 [email protected] University of Birmingham School of Engineering View all articles by this author David R. Themens 0000-0003-2567-8187 University of Birmingham View all articles by this author Sean Elvidge 0000-0003-2846-0730 University of Birmingham View all articles by this author Mohammad Afraz Ahmed University of Birmingham View all articles by this author Warrick Ball University of Birmingham View all articles by this author M Mainul Hoque German Aerospace Center View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 412 views 277 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Benjamin Reid, David R. Themens, Sean Elvidge, et al. The real-time Advanced Ionospheric Data Assimilation (AIDA) model. Authorea . 10 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.175752961.13347911/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. 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