Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal

Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal Rupert Stuart-Smith, Ewan White, Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Thom Wetzer, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5483105/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well-below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions andAchieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well-below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and CO 2 to be withdrawn from the atmosphere and safely stored. However, pathways consistent with the Paris long-term temperature goal span a wide range of emission reductions in coming years: the IPCC indicates 34-60% cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2019-2030. This range is a major source of policy uncertainty. A key determinant of the rate at which emissions must be reduced this decade is the extent to which CO 2 removal (CDR) is relied on later to withdraw emissions from the atmosphere. Here, we evaluate the dependence on CDR of 71 states, primarily in their near and long-term climate strategies submitted to the UNFCCC by May 2024, and the associated risks. Our analysis finds substantial ambiguities in how states plan to meet their climate targets. A feature of this ambiguity is that states expect to rely heavily on novel and conventional CDR options to meet their climate goals, and in some cases, rely on removals delivered in other states’ territories. Pathways that overshoot 1.5°C and use CDR to remove emissions produced in excess of the 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget will result in more severe climate change impacts and higher risks of crossing planetary tipping points. Moreover, states’ disclosed reliance on CDR is highly exposed to risks to its delivery, and non-delivery of planned CDR would raise global temperatures further, worsening impacts of climate change. Our findings provide a basis for enhanced scrutiny of states’ targets. The risks associated with heavy reliance on CDR to meet climate goals indicate that states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and the reliance on CDR to reach net-zero CO 2 emissions. CO 2 to be withdrawn from the atmosphere and safely stored. However, pathways consistent with the Paris long-term temperature goal span a wide range of emission reductions in coming years: the IPCC indicates 34-60% cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 relative to 2019. This range is a major source of policy uncertainty. A key determinant of the rate at which emissions must be reduced this decade is the extent to which CO 2 removal (CDR) is relied on to withdraw emissions from the atmosphere. Environmental Policy Climatology Paris Agreement Climate change mitigation Carbon dioxide removal Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files StatesdependenceoncarbondioxideremovalSMauthordetails.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5483105","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":380723211,"identity":"b8090a23-e2d4-4ef3-af8e-b22ba1a96bf4","order_by":0,"name":"Rupert 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removal","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5483105/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5483105/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAchieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well-below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions andAchieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming well-below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C requires rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e to be withdrawn from the atmosphere and safely stored. However, pathways consistent with the Paris long-term temperature goal span a wide range of emission reductions in coming years: the IPCC indicates 34-60% cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 2019-2030. This range is a major source of policy uncertainty. A key determinant of the rate at which emissions must be reduced this decade is the extent to which CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e removal (CDR) is relied on later to withdraw emissions from the atmosphere.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere, we evaluate the dependence on CDR of 71 states, primarily in their near and long-term climate strategies submitted to the UNFCCC by May 2024, and the associated risks. Our analysis finds substantial ambiguities in how states plan to meet their climate targets. A feature of this ambiguity is that states expect to rely heavily on novel and conventional CDR options to meet their climate goals, and in some cases, rely on removals delivered in other states’ territories. Pathways that overshoot 1.5°C and use CDR to remove emissions produced in excess of the 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget will result in more severe climate change impacts and higher risks of crossing planetary tipping points. Moreover, states’ disclosed reliance on CDR is highly exposed to risks to its delivery, and non-delivery of planned CDR would raise global temperatures further, worsening impacts of climate change. Our findings provide a basis for enhanced scrutiny of states’ targets. The risks associated with heavy reliance on CDR to meet climate goals indicate that states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and the reliance on CDR to reach net-zero CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions. CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e to be withdrawn from the atmosphere and safely stored. 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