Velocity estimation in reinforcement learning

The current work aims to study how people make predictions, under a reinforcement learning framework, in an environment that fluctuates from trial to trial and is corrupted with Gaussian noise. A computer-based experiment was developed where subjects were required to predict the future location of a spaceship that orbited around planet Earth. Its position was sampled from a Gaussian distribution with the mean changing at a variable velocity and four different values of variance that defined our signal-to-noise conditions. Three error-driven algorithms using a Bayesian approach were proposed as candidates to describe our data. The first is the standard delta-rule. The second and third models are delta rules incorporating a velocity component which is updated using prediction errors. The third model additionally assumes a hierarchical structure where individual learning rates for velocity and decision noise come from Gaussian distributions with means following a hyperbolic function. We used leave-one-out cross-validation and the Widely Applicable Information Criterion to compare the predictive accuracy of these models. In general, our results provided evidence in favor of the hierarchical model and highlight two main conclusions. First, when facing an environment that fluctuates from trial to trial, people can learn to estimate its velocity to make predictions. Second, learning rates for velocity and decision noise are influenced by uncertainty constraints represented by the signal-to-noise ratio. This higher order control was modeled using a hierarchical structure, which qualitatively accounts for individual variability and is able to generalize and make predictions about new subjects on each experimental condition.