Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions

Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Shifting Ground: A Counterfactual Analysis of Recovery in Earthquake-Affected Regions Giulio Breglia, Marco Modica This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7538998/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in The Annals of Regional Science → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Disasters disrupt socio-economic systems unevenly, and their spatial impacts are often derived from pre-existing territorial vulnerabilities. Given this evidence, this paper investigates the spatial dimensions of post-disaster recovery by analysing the housing market in the aftermath of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. We adopted a two-stage methodology that combines the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Diff-in-Diff (DiD) to evaluate recovery trajectories across six spatial categories, underlining spatial heterogeneity in recovery dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in the recovery patterns, with independent municipalities performing better than urban hamlets. This study underscores the importance of fine-grained spatial analysis for post-disaster policy design. These findings have significant implications for resilience planning and the development of targeted recovery strategies. Disasters Housing Synthetic Control Method Regional Counterfactual Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in The Annals of Regional Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 03 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 04 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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