Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for Aspergillus fumigatus sensitization in adults with asthma: A retrospective study

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for Aspergillus fumigatus sensitization in adults with asthma: A retrospective study | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 27 May 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for Aspergillus fumigatus sensitization in adults with asthma: A retrospective study Authors : Feifei Liu , Qi Tian , Shanling Yu , Chunmi Niu , and Shufeng Xu [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174833865.51801876/v1 Published Frontiers in Medicine Version of record Peer review timeline 196 views 116 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Background: Aspergillus fumigatus sensitized asthma (AFSA) is associated with severe exacerbations and progressive lung damage, however, diagnosis remains challenging in resource-limited settings due to limited access to Aspergillus -specific IgE ( A.f- sIgE) testing. We aimed to develop a clinical prediction model using routinely available biomarkers for AFSA identification. Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 92 adult asthma patients at The First Hospital of Qinhuangdao City (2023–2025). Participants were classified into AFSA and non-AFSA groups. Candidate predictors (demographics and hematological parameters) were analyzed using LASSO regression, with subsequent multivariable logistic regression. Performance was validated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: Among 92 patients (mean age 56.5±12.8 years; 60.9% female), 44.6% (n=41) had AFSA. LASSO selected five predictors: sex, monocyte percentage, monocyte absolute count, lymphocyte percentage, and total IgE. Final model retained male sex (OR=10.688; 95%CI:1.661–152.999) and TIgE (OR=1.006; 95%CI:1.003–1.011). The model achieved excellent discrimination: training cohort (AUC=0.96, sensitivity=0.93, specificity=0.92); validation cohort (AUC=0.88, sensitivity=0.75, specificity=1.00). Sex-specific TIgE cutoffs (527.5 IU/mL [males], 906.1 IU/mL [females]) yielded 79.2% accuracy. Conclusions: The developed prediction model using gender and TIgE provides a practical, accessible tool for AFSA screening, overcoming diagnostic barriers in settings lacking A.f -sIgE testing. Its high accuracy and clinical utility support early identification of high-risk patients, facilitating timely intervention and improved outcomes in asthma management. Supplementary Material File (afsa.docx) Download 566.83 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 27 May 2025 Peer review timeline Published Frontiers in Medicine Version of Record 22 Oct 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords abpa allergy diagnosis asthma ige Authors Affiliations Feifei Liu First Hospital of Qinhuangdao View all articles by this author Qi Tian First Hospital of Qinhuangdao View all articles by this author Shanling Yu First Hospital of Qinhuangdao View all articles by this author Chunmi Niu First Hospital of Qinhuangdao View all articles by this author Shufeng Xu [email protected] First Hospital of Qinhuangdao View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 196 views 116 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Feifei Liu, Qi Tian, Shanling Yu, et al. Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for Aspergillus fumigatus sensitization in adults with asthma: A retrospective study. Authorea . 27 May 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174833865.51801876/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. 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