Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations

Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations Francisco Palmero, Eric Davidson, Kaiyu Guan, Alison Eagle, Hannah Birge, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Finding optimum nitrogen (N) rates for maize is essential to balance crop productivity and farmers’ profit while reducing negative environmental and social consequences associated with N fertilization. However, the determination of optimum N rates is subject to substantial uncertainty linked to soil, plant, and weather interactions. By accounting for this uncertainty, we demonstrate that fertilizer N rates can be reduced by 12 to 16% with negligible risk of maize yield losses across the US Corn Belt region. This decrease in N fertilizer application can reduce N2O omissions by 10% and N leaching by 13% with a concomitant social benefit ranging from $230 to more than $500 M, due to improved air and water quality. Thus, an initial call for action to reduce the environmental footprint of US maize production should focus on accounting for uncertainties in the current N recommendation systems. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SuppMat.pdf Supplementary Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6735572","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":467726392,"identity":"b270ce21-fc3b-43d7-bddc-f093fa2b2246","order_by":0,"name":"Francisco Palmero","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGxgMgBj8PmM9MWAsPUD1Yi2QPyVoMzhCtRbr5waEbFffkjM8cfybBUGGd2EBQi8wxg8M5Z4qNzc72mEkwnEknrMVeIsHgcG5bQuK28zxsEoxth4mwRSL9w+HcfwmJm/vZn0kw/iNKSw7QloaExA28DWYSjA3EaJE5U3A451iCscSZM8YWCcfSjQlrkW7f+DinJkGOvyf94Y0PNdayBLUwSCBzEggqx9AyCkbBKBgFowAbAAAw1T+x9V7/KQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Kansas State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francisco","middleName":"","lastName":"Palmero","suffix":""},{"id":467726393,"identity":"39b2427a-2c04-4b06-903f-fd2929d76386","order_by":1,"name":"Eric Davidson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8525-8697","institution":"University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"","lastName":"Davidson","suffix":""},{"id":467726394,"identity":"19b6e673-390c-47c5-8010-8a3171958377","order_by":2,"name":"Kaiyu Guan","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3499-6382","institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kaiyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Guan","suffix":""},{"id":467726395,"identity":"a819d8a5-51b7-4e80-be47-6aee7f47df2a","order_by":3,"name":"Alison Eagle","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0841-2379","institution":"Environmental Defense Fund","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alison","middleName":"","lastName":"Eagle","suffix":""},{"id":467726396,"identity":"cfd2c48a-6c82-40a5-8111-eb50b5f3be6e","order_by":4,"name":"Hannah Birge","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Nature Conservancy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hannah","middleName":"","lastName":"Birge","suffix":""},{"id":467726397,"identity":"cfeadeaf-ec9b-4d00-ac3f-0ce383a98520","order_by":5,"name":"PV Vara Prasad","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kansas State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"PV","middleName":"Vara","lastName":"Prasad","suffix":""},{"id":467726398,"identity":"1d9a1afb-6801-4ca5-b0c8-e58d253f5c52","order_by":6,"name":"Trevor Hefley","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Statistics, Kansas State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Trevor","middleName":"","lastName":"Hefley","suffix":""},{"id":467726399,"identity":"f33206a2-13e6-4b4d-b468-3058e63026b2","order_by":7,"name":"Jeffrey Schussler","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Schussler Ag Research Solutions","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jeffrey","middleName":"","lastName":"Schussler","suffix":""},{"id":467726400,"identity":"73ec28cd-a8df-409a-831a-7694cde64f5f","order_by":8,"name":"Ignacio Ciampitti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Agronomy, Purdue University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ignacio","middleName":"","lastName":"Ciampitti","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-23 20:45:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87538236,"identity":"f30b957d-ee3f-4aca-9840-c5a2375c5b2b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-25 02:39:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1102589,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"PalmeroNrateUncertainty.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6735572/v1_covered_6f91b660-45cf-4b03-bff8-e5aac7651359.pdf"},{"id":85298148,"identity":"c019762a-1ff1-40d2-b9ec-3858a0ef4a4b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 11:34:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1528333,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Material","description":"","filename":"SuppMat.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6735572/v1/8c11121b1b48ee599077aa2b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Finding optimum nitrogen (N) rates for maize is essential to balance crop productivity and farmers’ profit while reducing negative environmental and social consequences associated with N fertilization. However, the determination of optimum N rates is subject to substantial uncertainty linked to soil, plant, and weather interactions. By accounting for this uncertainty, we demonstrate that fertilizer N rates can be reduced by 12 to 16% with negligible risk of maize yield losses across the US Corn Belt region. This decrease in N fertilizer application can reduce N2O omissions by 10% and N leaching by 13% with a concomitant social benefit ranging from $230 to more than $500 M, due to improved air and water quality. Thus, an initial call for action to reduce the environmental footprint of US maize production should focus on accounting for uncertainties in the current N recommendation systems.","manuscriptTitle":"Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-24 11:34:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6735572/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"81d646f8-f04b-409d-8243-ec69608a6ef4","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":49666737,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":49666738,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental impact"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-07-25T02:30:56+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-24 11:34:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6735572","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6735572","identity":"rs-6735572","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}