Reshoring under constraints: the role of import dependence, technology and skills

Reshoring under constraints: the role of import dependence, technology and skills | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Reshoring under constraints: the role of import dependence, technology and skills Weronika Łebkowska This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9436954/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite rapid advances in automation and growing concerns about supply chain resilience, large-scale reshoring of manufacturing remains limited. Global production networks appear remarkably persistent even in the presence of technological change and recent disruptions. This raises an important question: why do some sectors adjust production domestically while others remain structurally embedded in global value chains? This paper shifts the perspective from ex post drivers of relocation to ex ante structural constraints and examines whether technological and workforce capabilities mitigate these constraints. Using sector-level input–output data, it analyzes how prior dependence on foreign intermediate inputs conditions the scope for domestic sourcing rebalancing. The results show that structural import dependence is a strong and persistent constraint on reshoring. Sectors more deeply embedded in global value chains exhibit systematically lower reshoring, even in the presence of technological upgrading. Capabilities, captured by workforce skills, ICT readiness, and automation, mitigate this constraint only selectively: they support gradual rebalancing of sourcing patterns, but do not increase the likelihood of strict reshoring episodes requiring substitution away from foreign inputs. Among capability measures, workforce skills display a more robust and consistent moderating effect than technological indicators. These findings suggest that reshoring is shaped less by changing cost conditions or technological adoption than by inherited production structures. As a result, supply chain resilience is more likely to emerge through gradual reconfiguration within global value chains rather than through large-scale production relocation. JEL Classification: F14, F23, O14, O33, C23 Reshoring Global Value Chains Import Dependence Production Reconfiguration Automation Workforce Skills Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 18 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 16 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9436954","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":625483336,"identity":"c8e5a3c0-04df-4692-b617-4998084f1277","order_by":0,"name":"Weronika Łebkowska","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gZmhgNAmoeB8QFYAMR5gFcLI1wLswFcSwKRWtgkiNJicICx8XHBGZvE+T2Hn1XztjHI8d1IYHtAQEuz8YwbaYkbzraZ3QZqMZa8kcBugE+L2QHGNmmeD4dzN/AzALVsY0jcALRFgoCW9t8gLfP72b8VA7XUE6OljZnnxuHchrM9ZsxALQkGhLTYH2Zslp5xJq1+w5kzxZJz/0kYzjzzsB2vXyTbmw9+LjhmYyzfk77xw5szNvJ8x5OPPfiARwsDMyoXFDWMbfg0YAdspGsZBaNgFIyC4QwAuydTzsApM1IAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-7498-8095","institution":"University of Warsaw: Uniwersytet Warszawski","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weronika","middleName":"","lastName":"Łebkowska","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-16 10:35:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9436954/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9436954/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107870625,"identity":"3e927670-41af-434d-9d91-24a920ff889a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 07:40:12","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":656549,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9436954/v1_covered_886c3bb2-d255-4341-ba3d-aeb393e2a41a.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Reshoring under constraints: the role of import dependence, technology and skills","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"review-of-world-economics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"rowe","sideBox":"Learn more about [Review of World Economics](http://link.springer.com/journal/10290)","snPcode":"10290","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/rowe/default2.aspx","title":"Review of World Economics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Reshoring, Global Value Chains, Import Dependence, Production Reconfiguration, Automation, Workforce Skills","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9436954/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9436954/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDespite rapid advances in automation and growing concerns about supply chain resilience, large-scale reshoring of manufacturing remains limited. Global production networks appear remarkably persistent even in the presence of technological change and recent disruptions. This raises an important question: why do some sectors adjust production domestically while others remain structurally embedded in global value chains?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis paper shifts the perspective from ex post drivers of relocation to ex ante structural constraints and examines whether technological and workforce capabilities mitigate these constraints. Using sector-level input–output data, it analyzes how prior dependence on foreign intermediate inputs conditions the scope for domestic sourcing rebalancing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results show that structural import dependence is a strong and persistent constraint on reshoring. Sectors more deeply embedded in global value chains exhibit systematically lower reshoring, even in the presence of technological upgrading. 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