How to Discern the Spread of Al-Shabaab Networks from ‘Ungoverned Spaces’ using the Ink Blot Logic of Diffusion

The current military counterterrorism strategies in the Horn of Africa are state-centric, being configured based on the African Union’s model of anti-terrorism laws. However, this strategy is incongruent with the typical behaviours of terrorist groups, as such groups often establish kinship networks across borders, along with maintaining a local presence embedded within communities. Hence, predicting the movement and spatial distribution of complex organized terrorist groups such as Al-Shabaab directly can prove difficult. However, indirectly plotting the occurrence of ‘ungoverned spaces’ (both physical and non-physical ones) can improve predictability—thus improving counter-terrorism (CT) strategies against the group. To provide empirical support for this hypothesis, this article utilized a combination of analytical techniques – including the ‘_ink blot’ _logic technique – to identify the role of ‘loose bonds’ and ‘hard bonds’ in the distribution of terrorists’ activities ranging from the group’s epicenter in Somalia to neighboring Kenya. This article argues that the ‘loose bonds’ established between states through official foreign policy praxis seem comparatively less likely to reinforce CT measures. Rather, the ‘hard bonds’ created among ethnic groups across borders lie at the heart of an effective transnational CT strategy.