Evaluating Brazil’s Sectoral Climate Adaptation Plans: Application of the Water Resilience Tracker

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This study presents a critical assessment of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT), a tool developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), applied to evaluate 13 national and subnational adaptation and strategic plans in Brazil. The research followed a four-phase qualitative design—training, document organization, tool application, and synthesis—complemented by content analysis, heuristic evaluation, and computational techniques (R and Python). The results reveal the tool’s usefulness in identifying gaps, inconsistencies, and integration deficits in sectoral planning, highlighting opportunities for improving coherence, institutional articulation, and adaptive capacity. However, methodological challenges were observed, including subjectivity in scoring, complexity of interpretation across diverse plans, and the absence of economic evaluation indicators. The experience demonstrates the WRT’s potential to enhance decision-making and climate governance by offering a structured framework for policy assessment, especially in contexts of decentralization and policy fragmentation. The findings align with OECD recommendations for promoting water resilience in Brazil, emphasizing the need for multi-level governance, cross-sectoral alignment, and investment in institutional capacity. This study contributes to the refinement of climate adaptation assessment tools and supports the use of diagnostic frameworks to inform the design of integrated and socially responsive policies under conditions of climatic uncertainty. Water Resilience Tracker climate adaptation public policy water governance multi-level governance policy assessment Brazil INTRODUCTION The intensification of climate change impacts on water resources poses growing challenges to the formulation of effective and adaptive public policies. In this scenario, assessing water resilience has become a strategic component for guiding government decisions, planning integrated actions and promoting sustainability at different scales and for different users of water resources. Methodological tools that make it possible to measure this resilience in a systematic, comparable and policy-oriented way are essential for dealing with growing climate uncertainties. Its use contributes not only to identifying policy gaps but also to supporting the formulation of more coherent, adaptive, and resilient public policies by making water-climate linkages more explicit in national planning instruments. This article presents a critical analysis of the application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT), a tool developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), aimed at assessing the integration of water into national climate policies. The focus of the study is to examine the applicability, limits and possibilities of adapting the WRT to the context of Brazilian sectoral plans for adapting to climate change. The experience analyzed corresponds to 10 of the 16 sectoral climate plans and a further three plans, two of which are national (National Plan for Neoindustrialization and Plan to Combat Desertification) and one municipal (Climate Plan for the Municipality of São Paulo), totaling thirteen documents obtained from the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA), whose evaluation highlighted both the analytical potential of the tool and its operational challenges in decentralized and thematically diverse contexts. The methodological approach adopted combined the use of WRT with content analysis techniques, heuristic analysis and computational tools (R and Python), allowing for a more robust and contextualized evaluation. The application of the tool revealed the need for interpretative and institutional adjustments to ensure consistency in the scoring of the criteria and reduce subjectivity in the reading of the evaluated documents. Beyond its methodological contributions, the use of the WRT also revealed important political implications. By offering a structured and transparent diagnostic framework, the tool can support policy-makers in prioritizing actions, allocating resources, and integrating water-related resilience criteria into cross-sectoral climate strategies. Its application provides actionable insights for interministerial planning, strengthens multilevel governance, and promotes greater accountability and transparency in climate adaptation policies. As such, the WRT emerges not only as an analytical device, but as a practical policy-support instrument with potential to enhance the coherence and effectiveness of environmental governance. The findings are directly in line with the principles and recommendations of the OECD report (2022) on promoting water resilience in Brazil, which advocates a transition from risk-based approaches to resilience-oriented models, with an emphasis on multi-level governance, green infrastructure, economic instruments and sectoral integration (OCDE 2022 ). By documenting the methodological learnings generated by this innovative application, this article contributes to improving climate adaptation assessment tools and strengthening the institutional capacities needed to build resilient public policies in line with the Sustainable Development Goals. THEORETICAL REVIEW Climate Adaptation in Brazil: Recent Milestones and National Strategies The climate crisis is recognized as one of the greatest contemporary challenges, requiring articulated responses across multiple scales and sectors. In Brazil, this urgency is amplified by the high dependence on natural resources and the vulnerability of urban and rural populations to extreme events. The intensification of the greenhouse effect, driven mainly by anthropogenic activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, triggers systemic impacts on ecological and socio-economic chains. Brazilian society, inserted in a context of accelerated urbanization and food, energy and water insecurity, faces a double demand: to mitigate emissions and adapt to the impacts already underway. The response to this scenario must incorporate not only technologies and regulations, but also the strengthening of governance and climate justice, recognizing that risks and adaptive capacities are distributed unequally (Rodrigues Filho et al. 2016 ). Between 1995 and 2019, The UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COPs) outlined the international trajectory of climate governance, articulating emission reduction targets, financial mechanisms, and adaptation and mitigation strategies. From the Kyoto Protocol (COP-3, 1997) to the Paris Agreement (COP-21, 2015), there has been growing recognition of the climate emergency and the need for concrete commitments from the signatory countries. With each cycle, issues such as deforestation, climate finance, clean technologies and climate justice have been added to the agenda, reflecting tensions between economic interests, social demands and scientific evidence. The most recent COPs, such as Madrid (2019), Glasgow (2021) and Sharm El Sheikh (2022), have reinforced the centrality of adaptation and the recognition of the climate emergency, as well as pointing to the need for immediate and transformative action in this decade (Aquino et al. 2024 ). The National Climate Change Policy (PNMC), instituted by Law No. 12.187/2009, represents a historic milestone for Brazilian environmental policies by consolidating, at the domestic level, the international commitments made since Rio-92 and the Kyoto Protocol. As the first national climate policy in Latin America, its conception stands out for its scope and complexity, seeking to make economic growth compatible with climate protection. Its objectives range from the mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) to adaptation to climate impacts, including instruments such as sectoral plans, financing mechanisms and guidelines for multisectoral involvement. However, its effectiveness has been compromised by failures in monitoring, the lack of continuous evaluation of sectoral plans, and the weakening of funds aimed at combating deforestation and promoting climate resilience, such as the Climate Fund and the Amazon Fund (Rizzini Freitas and Gussi 2021 ). The PNMC's trajectory is closely linked to the country's political-institutional and economic contexts. The period from 2009 to 2010 symbolized the peak of Brazil's commitment to the climate agenda, but subsequent governments have shown signs of regression. The environmental institutional crisis has deepened since 2019, with the dismantling of technical bodies, regulatory deregulation, the paralysis of funds and a reduction in the participation of civil society in decision-making processes. In addition, the spending ceiling imposed by Constitutional Amendment 95 imposed severe budget restrictions, directly impacting the policy's implementation capacity. The analysis of its assumption’s points to the determining influence of the international agenda, the instability of political consensus, the context of fiscal austerity and institutional dismantling as critical factors. Faced with these challenges, the PNMC needs new indicators - especially socio-cultural ones - and a more robust articulation between the various sectors of the state, so that it can fulfill its strategic role in Brazil's transition to a low-carbon economy and in strengthening its position in the international climate regime (Rizzini Freitas and Gussi 2021 ). The climate emergency has intensified extreme events in Brazil, such as droughts in the Pantanal and the Amazon and severe rains in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, making the fight against global warming a national priority. To meet this challenge, the Brazilian government drew up the Climate Plan, coordinated by the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM), with representatives from 23 ministries, the Climate Network and the Brazilian Climate Change Forum (Ministério de Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima - MMA 2025 ). This plan establishes actions until 2035, organized into two fundamental pillars: mitigation, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and adaptation, which seeks to prepare human and natural systems for the impacts of climate change. The structure of the Climate Plan includes National and Sectoral Strategies - with seven plans aimed at mitigation and 16 at adaptation - as well as cross-cutting actions in areas such as governance, financing and technical training (Ministério de Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima - MMA 2025 ). Water Resilience and Assessment An innovative approach to water resilience in the context of the Anthropocene highlights the central role of water in the stability of socio-ecological systems and sustainable development. Resilience is understood as the ability of a system to cope with disturbances without exceeding critical change points, and water resilience refers specifically to the role of water in maintaining this desired state. Increasing human interference - such as climate change, changes in land use and dam construction - has compromised these functions, generating both linear and non-linear collapses in ecosystems, which are often irreversible (Falkenmark et al. 2019 ). Water plays three fundamental roles: as a control variable (source of resilience), state variable (victim of external changes) and driver (agent of change), performing essential functions ranging from climate regulation to supply and support for agricultural production. The loss of these functions can trigger ecological and social collapses, such as desertification or water crises associated with armed conflicts. The authors advocate a paradigm shift in water governance, proposing adaptive management that considers green and blue waters in an integrated way, with the aim of preserving the resilience of systems on a local and planetary scale (Falkenmark et al. 2019 ). Despite the emerging conceptual diversity, there are still significant gaps in the integration between the technical and socio-political aspects of resilience. Institutional processes are poorly detailed, and normative principles such as equity and participation are insufficiently explored. Collaboration is highlighted as a key to resilience, but it tends to take place in the final stages of planning, without the real involvement of the actors. Even with theoretical and practical challenges, water resilience has the potential to function as a "frontier concept", connecting different disciplines and promoting more adaptive and inclusive water governance (Rodina 2019 ). Water security is a central concept for sustainable development, encompassing the management of situations of excess, scarcity and contamination of water. Its importance is evidenced by its direct relationship with SDG 6 and its connection with multiple economic, social and environmental sectors. In the face of growing pressures - such as climate change, population growth, urbanization, pollution and scarcity - it is essential to guarantee the supply of safe and accessible water, the protection of ecosystems and resilience to disasters. Water security assessments must consider multiple scales (from the domestic to the global level), interconnected dimensions (human well-being, ecosystems, climate risks and economic development) and temporal variability, using multidisciplinary approaches and specific indicators (Marcal et al. 2024 ). MATERIALS AND METHODS Methodological Design The research adopted a qualitative approach focusing on the critical application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT) tool, developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), with the aim of assessing its usefulness and limitations in measuring the integration of water resilience into climate adaptation plans. The study was conducted in four main phases: (i) technical training on the use of the tool; (ii) obtaining and organizing the documents evaluated; (iii) applying the WRT questionnaire to the plans; and (iv) analyzing the responses and systematizing the findings. The documents analyzed were 10 sectoral climate plans: Climate Plan - Industry and Mining; Climate Plan - Agriculture and Livestock; Climate Plan - Ocean and Coastal Zone; Climate Plan - Indigenous Peoples; Climate Plan - Energy; Climate Plan - Risk and Disaster Reduction and Management; Climate Plan - Health; Climate Plan - Traditional Peoples and Communities; Climate Plan - Food and Nutrition Security; Climate Plan - Tourism. In addition to three other plans: Brazilian Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought; Climate Action Plan of the Municipality of São Paulo 2020–2050; Action Plan for Neoindustrialization 2024–2026. Stages in the Application of the Water Resilience Tracker The team was trained in August 2024 in collaboration with an AGWA member, enabling conceptual alignment with the objectives and principles of the tool. The collection of the document set comprised 16 Sectoral, selected and made available by the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA), prioritized according to criteria of technical maturity and institutional relevance. During the training phase, workshops with some representatives of ministries and technical bodies made it possible to explore institutional perceptions of the tool and its applicability. This interaction was important for contextualizing the documents assessed and understanding possible limitations of the approach. The application of the tool involved two evaluators, who jointly analyzed each plan based on the 153 questions in the WRT questionnaire, distributed in four main sections and two complementary subsections (see section 2.4). Each item was scored on the basis of explicit, partial or absent evidence, classified respectively as "strongly supported" (1), "somewhat supported" (2) or "not included" (3). The double evaluation process sought to reduce subjectivity and ensure greater methodological consistency. A methodological strategy applied at the end of the evaluation process was for one of the researchers to scan all 153 WRT questions in all the documents, using artificial intelligence, in order to compare the answers of the two researchers. Complementary Analytical Techniques In addition to completing the WRT, the study incorporated two complementary qualitative techniques: content analysis and heuristic analysis. Content analysis was used to identify, categorize and interpret relevant excerpts from the plans, allowing inferences to be drawn about the conditions of formulation, the regulatory frameworks and the predominant discourses in the documents. It is a systematic and interpretative procedure that balances methodological rigor and contextual sensitivity, and is widely used in public policy and planning studies (Keller and Najjar 2024 ). Heuristic analysis was applied as an interpretative approach based on guiding (or "heuristic") principles, which made it possible to detect patterns, gaps and inconsistencies in the way plans incorporate elements of water resilience. This technique is especially useful when evaluating narrative instruments or technical-political documents, in which qualitative variables are central and often not amenable to direct quantification (Keller and Najjar 2024 ). To these techniques were added artificial intelligence resources and programming in R and Python, used for textual similarity analysis, automated comparison of excerpts and the development of synthetic visualizations. A calculation report was also drawn up to quantify performance by section, aggregating responses into percentages and making it easier to identify patterns of convergence and divergence between the documents assessed. Structure of the Water Resilience Tracker Tool The Water Resilience Tracker for National Climate Planning is a diagnostic tool structured to strengthen the integration of water management into climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is organized into four main sections: Section 1 - Integration of water in national climate plans: assesses how water is treated in strategic documents, under three main approaches - as a risk, as a sector and as a resource. Section 2 - Institutional framework, sustainable development and capacity building: analyzes water governance, alignment with the SDGs, climate justice, capacity building and institutional articulation. Section 3 - Water in specific sectors and resource allocation: examines the presence of water in sectoral goals and actions (energy, agriculture, health, infrastructure, etc.), as well as cross-impacts. Section 4 - Implementation and financing: verifies the feasibility of implementing the proposed actions and their alignment with sources of climate finance. The two complementary subsections deal with climate risk management and the specificities of the water sector, including monitoring, efficiency, impacts of extreme events and financial sustainability. The complete structure contains 153 questions: 19 in Section 1; 31 in Section 2; 61 in Section 3; 42 in Section 4; plus 12 and 8 questions in the subsections, respectively. RESULTS Policy Insights from Applying the WRT to Brazil’s Climate Adaptation Plans The Water Resilience Tracker was originally conceived as a diagnostic tool for evaluating national climate plans. Its methodological framework and criteria were designed to ensure consistent and comparable analysis between countries, with an emphasis on national-scale policies and broad strategic frameworks. However, its application in different contexts has demonstrated a methodological flexibility that allows for useful adaptations for analysis at regional or sectoral levels, as long as there is articulation with national strategies and relevant thematic areas, such as water security and adaptive planning. In the Brazilian case, the application of the tool in 10 of the 16 Sectoral Adaptation Plans, linked to the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), represents an unprecedented and methodologically challenging use. The thematic diversity and heterogeneity in the degree of technical maturity of the documents evaluated demanded a careful interpretation of the WRT criteria, respecting their original scope limits. This analytical effort, while revealing in terms of the tool's potential, also highlighted the need for methodological adaptations to more accurately capture the particularities of sectoral policies. Historically, climate policies in Brazil have prioritized mitigation actions, such as clean development mechanisms, sectoral emissions plans and anti-deforestation programs. However, the insufficient progress of these strategies and the growing evidence of irreversible impacts have led to an emphasis on adaptation policies. The creation of the National Adaptation Plan (2015) and of the CEMADEN (2011) represented a turning point in this path, although their implementation still faces financial and institutional challenges. Integration between climate and sectoral policies remains limited, often marked by contradictions - such as the simultaneous encouragement of low-carbon agriculture and the expansion of agribusiness into forest areas. Given the complexity of the problem, characterized as a "pernicious problem", overcoming institutional fragmentation and intersectoral coordination are crucial to consolidating an effective, coherent and equitable climate policy in Brazil (Rodrigues Filho et al. 2016 ). With a focus on reducing socio-economic and environmental impacts, the National Adaptation Strategy proposes coordinated actions that guide states and municipalities and seek to guarantee financial and technological resources for implementing sustainable solutions. The participatory process of drawing up the plan reinforces the need for assessment tools to support the monitoring of water resilience and the effectiveness of public policies in vulnerable contexts (Ministério de Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima - MMA 2025 ). Practical application revealed situations in which the WRT questionnaire criteria were not fully compatible with the level of detail or the language of the documents assessed. In several cases, relevant decisions were absent or only implicitly mentioned, which required the evaluators to make an inferential reading based on standards and secondary evidence. These methodological limitations reinforce the importance of a second verification stage, aimed at dialog with the ministries and agencies responsible for each plan, in order to clarify intentions, priorities and institutional contexts not made explicit in the texts. Despite these challenges, the application of the tool demonstrated its usefulness as a reference framework for promoting systematic and comparative assessments. It has also made it possible to identify formulation patterns, recurring gaps and opportunities for improving sectoral adaptation strategies. Methodological Complementation and Analytical Deepening To increase the robustness of the analysis and deal with the limits of the tool in its original use, complementary approaches were incorporated, such as content analysis and heuristic analysis. These techniques made it possible to interpret the documents in a more contextualized way, revealing structural elements, argumentative patterns and implicit dimensions that would not have been detectable by the WRT score alone. In addition, the use of computational tools in the R and Python environments made it possible to develop specific metrics, textual similarity analyses and visualizations that helped interpret the data and identify convergences and divergences between the plans. These additional analyses, presented in greater detail in section 5, go beyond the original scope of the tool and represent a methodological innovation that contributes to its improvement and adaptation to new contexts. Overcoming the challenges of water security requires coordinated actions, such as the adoption of integrated approaches, innovative solutions, adaptive policies and robust investments in infrastructure. In addition, it is crucial to strengthen water governance through social participation, strategic planning, reliable databases and science-policy dialog. Indicators, when well applied, guide decisions, monitor progress and encourage continuous improvement through benchmarking. Therefore, achieving water security implies not only having technical and institutional tools, but also promoting social justice, equity and long-term sustainability (Marcal et al. 2021 ). Potentialities and Limitations of the Tool The application of the Water Resilience Tracker in the context of Brazilian sectoral plans has allowed us to identify various potentialities of the tool as a structured instrument for assessing water resilience in public policies. One of the main merits observed was its ability to offer a comprehensive analytical framework, which articulates multiple dimensions of water management from the perspective of climate adaptation. The thematic segmentation of the questionnaire into sections and subsections facilitates the organization of the analysis and promotes a systematic reading of the presence (or absence) of strategic elements in the documents evaluated. Another positive point refers to the tool's usefulness as a mechanism for raising institutional awareness. The application process, especially when accompanied by dialogue with representatives from different sectors, proved useful in fostering recognition of the centrality of water as a cross-cutting vector for adaptation. The tool also showed potential to serve as a basis for monitoring and continuous improvement of climate strategies, by allowing comparisons over time and between sectors. On the other hand, the practical experience of applying it has revealed important methodological limitations. Firstly, the original scope of the tool, aimed at national plans, makes it difficult to adapt it immediately to documents with a smaller scope or less standardized language, as is the case with many sectoral plans. At various times, it was necessary to resort to inferential interpretations to assign scores to criteria whose presence was not explicit in the texts - which increases the degree of subjectivity of the analysis. In addition, the density and length of the questionnaire, made up of 153 items, implies a considerable workload and requires evaluators familiar not only with the tool, but also with the institutional and regulatory context of the documents. The lack of automated mechanisms for processing the answers limits the scalability of the application in large-scale evaluations, especially in countries with a high number of decentralized plans or documents. The analysis of ten documents linked to the National Adaptation Policy, which cover different public policy sectors in Brazil, provided a cross-sectional view of the challenges and opportunities for improving the implementation of adaptive measures in a country of continental dimensions. Among other aspects, the occurrence of overlapping strategies in certain territories was identified, highlighting concrete opportunities for integrating initiatives and optimizing adaptation efforts, especially in regions considered strategic. It should be noted that the detailed results of these assessments will be presented in a subsequent specific publication. The study also placed the policies side by side with the principles of climate justice and the debate on environmental racism. This highlighted the need to make them fairer for indigenous peoples, quilombola communities, riverside communities and peripheral populations, who tend to suffer climate impacts more severely. Another recurring point concerns nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation. Although they appear in some of the plans, there is a lack of clear guidelines and a more synthetic analysis that allows these approaches to be incorporated in a coherent way throughout the national territory. Finally, the issue of water still lacks depth: we still need a more detailed assessment of the allocation and use of water resources that recognizes all the "users" of water, including aquatic ecosystems, and not just the traditional productive sectors. Contributions and Challenges for the Brazilian Context The findings of the application of the Water Resilience Tracker in Brazilian sectoral plans converge with the approach proposed by the OECD (2022), which highlights the need for a conceptual and practical transition from models based on risk management to resilience-oriented models. This change implies not only the ability to respond to extreme events, but also systemic preparation to face structural uncertainties, such as those associated with climate change, urbanization and pressure on natural resources. The field of water resilience is largely fragmented and dominated by conventional engineering approaches focused on infrastructure maintenance and continuity of supply. Since 2007, driven by debates on climate change, the concept has begun to incorporate broader perspectives, such as socio-ecological systems, urban, community and institutional resilience. Most studies focus on local scales, especially urban water supply, with an emphasis on threats such as droughts and climate impacts (Rodina, 2019 ). The application of the WRT showed that although the tool clearly organizes the fundamental dimensions of water resilience - governance, sectoral integration, financing and implementation - the effective assessment of these aspects depends heavily on the maturity of the documents, institutional clarity and the quality of the available data. This finding is echoed in the criticism of the National Water Security Plan (PNSH) in the OECD report, which warns against the use of historical records without due consideration of future climate scenarios, compromising the robustness of long-term water infrastructure actions. The critical impacts of climate change on water resources - such as altered precipitation patterns, increased demand and deteriorating water quality - reinforce that adaptation is inevitable given the limitations of mitigation. Successful adaptation requires integration with other political objectives, public participation, institutional learning and strategies tailored to local realities, going beyond exclusively structural approaches. Adaptive governance is a promising path, especially in vulnerable contexts, and must involve institutional changes, organizational behaviour and the strategic use of technologies and knowledge (Karimi et al. 2024 ). In addition, the report reinforces the importance of green infrastructure, economic instruments and multi-level governance as pillars of resilience - aspects that the WRT considers, but whose applicability varies significantly between the plans analyzed. The tool's potential to promote integrated diagnoses and identify cross-cutting gaps between sectors such as energy, agriculture and sanitation is in line with international recommendations, but requires, in the Brazilian context, a strengthening of technical capacity, the production of strategic data and coordination between spheres of government. Another relevant point raised by the OECD concerns continuous institutional evaluation, the adoption of dynamic indicators and the need for adaptive monitoring, all principles that could be more explicitly integrated into the WRT structure in future versions. The absence of fields for qualitative contextualization of responses in the tool's questionnaire - identified as a limitation in this study - is also recognized as an obstacle to the operationalization of resilience in public policies. Finally, it should be noted that dialogue between diagnostic tools such as the Water Resilience Tracker and guidance reports such as the OECD's is essential for improving both. While the report provides normative and structural guidelines based on international experiences, the use of the tool in real contexts makes it possible to test its applicability, generate evidence and propose methodological adjustments. This feedback is essential to move forward in building more robust, coherent and fair public adaptation policies. CONCLUSIONS The application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT) to thirteen Brazilian climate adaptation plans (10 sectoral climate plans: Climate Plan - Industry and Mining; Climate Plan - Agriculture and Livestock; Climate Plan - Ocean and Coastal Zone; Climate Plan - Indigenous Peoples; Climate Plan - Energy; Climate Plan - Risk and Disaster Reduction and Management; Climate Plan - Health; Climate Plan - Traditional Peoples and Communities; Climate Plan - Food and Nutrition Security; Climate Plan - Tourism. In addition to three other plans: Brazilian Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought; Climate Action Plan of the Municipality of São Paulo 2020–2050; Action Plan for Neoindustrialization 2024–2026) demonstrated the tool’s potential to systematically identify critical gaps, patterns of integration, and strengths in sectoral strategies related to water resilience. Its structured questionnaire enabled a comparative and heuristic analysis of the documents, offering insights aligned with international principles of adaptive governance, such as those advocated by the OECD. However, the experience also revealed key limitations. The interpretative demands of the WRT criteria, the high density of its questions, and the need for contextual calibration pose operational challenges for national and subnational actors. Furthermore, although the tool addresses institutional, technical, and governance dimensions, it lacks a robust economic assessment component. This omission limits the capacity to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, financing feasibility, and macroeconomic implications of proposed adaptation measures—an essential aspect for informing public investment decisions and aligning sectoral plans with sustainable finance strategies. In summary, while the WRT proved valuable for guiding policy coherence and enhancing the quality of climate adaptation planning, its full potential would be better realized with the incorporation of an economic dimension. Future iterations of the tool would benefit from integrating financial indicators and economic evaluation criteria to support the development of adaptation strategies that are not only technically sound and socially just but also economically viable. Although the WRT proved valuable for identifying patterns and gaps across climate plans, a significant limitation observed was the absence of criteria or indicators to evaluate economic feasibility and financing structures. This gap constrains its capacity to fully support decision-making processes involving resource allocation. Addressing this limitation in future versions of the tool would strengthen its relevance for policy implementation and institutional planning. Declarations Author Contribution Sandra Milena Vélez-Echeverry, PhDConceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing.Michael Becker, MSc.Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing.Marina Oliveira de Souza Dias, PhD.Writing- Original draft preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.Ellen de Lima Souza, PhD.Writing- Original draft preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.Adriana Marques, PhD.Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank the MMA/Unifesp partnership for the financial resources necessary for the research through the FapUnifesp Notice 109/2024 and for the opportunity to contribute knowledge on such a relevant topic as adaptation to climate change and water resilience in the context of environmental and climate public policies. Funding Declaration and Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the MMA/Unifesp partnership for the financial resources necessary for the research through the FapUnifesp Notice 109/2024 and for the opportunity to contribute knowledge on such a relevant topic as adaptation to climate change and water resilience in the context of environmental and climate public policies. Declaration of Generative AI and AI-assisted Technologies in the Writing Process During the preparation of this work the author(s) used ChatGPT to improve the language in technical and scientific terms suitable for an international publication. 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Wiley Interdiscip Rev Water 6:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1002/WAT2.1334 Rodrigues Filho S, Lindoso DP, Bursztyn M, Nascimento CG (2016) O Clima Em Transe: Políticas De Mitigação E Adaptação No Brasil (Climate in Trance: Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in Brazil). Rev Bras Climatol 19:74–90. https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v19i0.48874 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7321098","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":514911635,"identity":"a441ff5c-0442-4890-8a54-546bf3024f5d","order_by":0,"name":"Sandra Milena Vélez Echeverry","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACGyBmbDxAipY0kJYGkrQcBpPEaZFvP2P48EfFebu17YeBttTYRBPUYnAmx9hA4szt5G1nEoFajqXlNhDUwpCWJmHYdjvZ7ABQC2PDYcJa5Pufpf9I/Hcu2ez8QyK1MNxIPsZwsOGAndkNYm0xuPH4sGTDseQEsxtAWxKI8Yt8f2Ljxx81dvZm59MfPvhQY0OEw6AgEawygVjlIGBPiuJRMApGwSgYYQAASq5JFOh5dPMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo – IFSP","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sandra","middleName":"Milena Vélez","lastName":"Echeverry","suffix":""},{"id":514911636,"identity":"a8b0945a-6fc7-408d-8fd4-9d45207918d6","order_by":1,"name":"Michael Becker","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of São Paulo – Unifesp","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Becker","suffix":""},{"id":514911637,"identity":"f6f800f8-c34c-4876-bdcd-5c33c8bef06e","order_by":2,"name":"Marina Oliveira de Souza Dias","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of São Paulo – Unifesp","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marina","middleName":"Oliveira de Souza","lastName":"Dias","suffix":""},{"id":514911638,"identity":"74197f88-7af5-4863-b7c5-426ade43ab53","order_by":3,"name":"Ellen de Lima Souza","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of São Paulo – Unifesp","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ellen","middleName":"de Lima","lastName":"Souza","suffix":""},{"id":514911639,"identity":"fb6d4ec4-9def-4be2-8998-a102d52edffd","order_by":4,"name":"Adriana Marques","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo – IFSP","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Adriana","middleName":"","lastName":"Marques","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-07 17:38:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7321098/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7321098/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96247461,"identity":"75e8bbaf-1d87-44cd-8405-956f0aa22274","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-19 07:27:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":612229,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7321098/v1/80c34d5b-c4b9-4ab3-82a5-09770b852532.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Evaluating Brazil’s Sectoral Climate Adaptation Plans: Application of the Water Resilience Tracker","fulltext":[{"header":"INTRODUCTION","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe intensification of climate change impacts on water resources poses growing challenges to the formulation of effective and adaptive public policies. In this scenario, assessing water resilience has become a strategic component for guiding government decisions, planning integrated actions and promoting sustainability at different scales and for different users of water resources. Methodological tools that make it possible to measure this resilience in a systematic, comparable and policy-oriented way are essential for dealing with growing climate uncertainties. Its use contributes not only to identifying policy gaps but also to supporting the formulation of more coherent, adaptive, and resilient public policies by making water-climate linkages more explicit in national planning instruments.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis article presents a critical analysis of the application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT), a tool developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), aimed at assessing the integration of water into national climate policies. The focus of the study is to examine the applicability, limits and possibilities of adapting the WRT to the context of Brazilian sectoral plans for adapting to climate change. The experience analyzed corresponds to 10 of the 16 sectoral climate plans and a further three plans, two of which are national (National Plan for Neoindustrialization and Plan to Combat Desertification) and one municipal (Climate Plan for the Municipality of S\u0026atilde;o Paulo), totaling thirteen documents obtained from the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA), whose evaluation highlighted both the analytical potential of the tool and its operational challenges in decentralized and thematically diverse contexts.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe methodological approach adopted combined the use of WRT with content analysis techniques, heuristic analysis and computational tools (R and Python), allowing for a more robust and contextualized evaluation. The application of the tool revealed the need for interpretative and institutional adjustments to ensure consistency in the scoring of the criteria and reduce subjectivity in the reading of the evaluated documents.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBeyond its methodological contributions, the use of the WRT also revealed important political implications. By offering a structured and transparent diagnostic framework, the tool can support policy-makers in prioritizing actions, allocating resources, and integrating water-related resilience criteria into cross-sectoral climate strategies. Its application provides actionable insights for interministerial planning, strengthens multilevel governance, and promotes greater accountability and transparency in climate adaptation policies. As such, the WRT emerges not only as an analytical device, but as a practical policy-support instrument with potential to enhance the coherence and effectiveness of environmental governance.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe findings are directly in line with the principles and recommendations of the OECD report (2022) on promoting water resilience in Brazil, which advocates a transition from risk-based approaches to resilience-oriented models, with an emphasis on multi-level governance, green infrastructure, economic instruments and sectoral integration (OCDE \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). By documenting the methodological learnings generated by this innovative application, this article contributes to improving climate adaptation assessment tools and strengthening the institutional capacities needed to build resilient public policies in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eTHEORETICAL REVIEW\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eClimate Adaptation in Brazil: Recent Milestones and National Strategies\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe climate crisis is recognized as one of the greatest contemporary challenges, requiring articulated responses across multiple scales and sectors. In Brazil, this urgency is amplified by the high dependence on natural resources and the vulnerability of urban and rural populations to extreme events. The intensification of the greenhouse effect, driven mainly by anthropogenic activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, triggers systemic impacts on ecological and socio-economic chains. Brazilian society, inserted in a context of accelerated urbanization and food, energy and water insecurity, faces a double demand: to mitigate emissions and adapt to the impacts already underway. The response to this scenario must incorporate not only technologies and regulations, but also the strengthening of governance and climate justice, recognizing that risks and adaptive capacities are distributed unequally (Rodrigues Filho et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBetween 1995 and 2019, The UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COPs) outlined the international trajectory of climate governance, articulating emission reduction targets, financial mechanisms, and adaptation and mitigation strategies. From the Kyoto Protocol (COP-3, 1997) to the Paris Agreement (COP-21, 2015), there has been growing recognition of the climate emergency and the need for concrete commitments from the signatory countries. With each cycle, issues such as deforestation, climate finance, clean technologies and climate justice have been added to the agenda, reflecting tensions between economic interests, social demands and scientific evidence. The most recent COPs, such as Madrid (2019), Glasgow (2021) and Sharm El Sheikh (2022), have reinforced the centrality of adaptation and the recognition of the climate emergency, as well as pointing to the need for immediate and transformative action in this decade (Aquino et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe National Climate Change Policy (PNMC), instituted by Law No. 12.187/2009, represents a historic milestone for Brazilian environmental policies by consolidating, at the domestic level, the international commitments made since Rio-92 and the Kyoto Protocol. As the first national climate policy in Latin America, its conception stands out for its scope and complexity, seeking to make economic growth compatible with climate protection. Its objectives range from the mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) to adaptation to climate impacts, including instruments such as sectoral plans, financing mechanisms and guidelines for multisectoral involvement. However, its effectiveness has been compromised by failures in monitoring, the lack of continuous evaluation of sectoral plans, and the weakening of funds aimed at combating deforestation and promoting climate resilience, such as the Climate Fund and the Amazon Fund (Rizzini Freitas and Gussi \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe PNMC's trajectory is closely linked to the country's political-institutional and economic contexts. The period from 2009 to 2010 symbolized the peak of Brazil's commitment to the climate agenda, but subsequent governments have shown signs of regression. The environmental institutional crisis has deepened since 2019, with the dismantling of technical bodies, regulatory deregulation, the paralysis of funds and a reduction in the participation of civil society in decision-making processes. In addition, the spending ceiling imposed by Constitutional Amendment 95 imposed severe budget restrictions, directly impacting the policy's implementation capacity. The analysis of its assumption\u0026rsquo;s points to the determining influence of the international agenda, the instability of political consensus, the context of fiscal austerity and institutional dismantling as critical factors. Faced with these challenges, the PNMC needs new indicators - especially socio-cultural ones - and a more robust articulation between the various sectors of the state, so that it can fulfill its strategic role in Brazil's transition to a low-carbon economy and in strengthening its position in the international climate regime (Rizzini Freitas and Gussi \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe climate emergency has intensified extreme events in Brazil, such as droughts in the Pantanal and the Amazon and severe rains in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, making the fight against global warming a national priority. To meet this challenge, the Brazilian government drew up the Climate Plan, coordinated by the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change (CIM), with representatives from 23 ministries, the Climate Network and the Brazilian Climate Change Forum (Minist\u0026eacute;rio de Meio Ambiente e Mudan\u0026ccedil;a do Clima - MMA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis plan establishes actions until 2035, organized into two fundamental pillars: mitigation, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions; and adaptation, which seeks to prepare human and natural systems for the impacts of climate change. The structure of the Climate Plan includes National and Sectoral Strategies - with seven plans aimed at mitigation and 16 at adaptation - as well as cross-cutting actions in areas such as governance, financing and technical training (Minist\u0026eacute;rio de Meio Ambiente e Mudan\u0026ccedil;a do Clima - MMA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eWater Resilience and Assessment\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn innovative approach to water resilience in the context of the Anthropocene highlights the central role of water in the stability of socio-ecological systems and sustainable development. Resilience is understood as the ability of a system to cope with disturbances without exceeding critical change points, and water resilience refers specifically to the role of water in maintaining this desired state. Increasing human interference - such as climate change, changes in land use and dam construction - has compromised these functions, generating both linear and non-linear collapses in ecosystems, which are often irreversible (Falkenmark et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWater plays three fundamental roles: as a control variable (source of resilience), state variable (victim of external changes) and driver (agent of change), performing essential functions ranging from climate regulation to supply and support for agricultural production. The loss of these functions can trigger ecological and social collapses, such as desertification or water crises associated with armed conflicts. The authors advocate a paradigm shift in water governance, proposing adaptive management that considers green and blue waters in an integrated way, with the aim of preserving the resilience of systems on a local and planetary scale (Falkenmark et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDespite the emerging conceptual diversity, there are still significant gaps in the integration between the technical and socio-political aspects of resilience. Institutional processes are poorly detailed, and normative principles such as equity and participation are insufficiently explored. Collaboration is highlighted as a key to resilience, but it tends to take place in the final stages of planning, without the real involvement of the actors. Even with theoretical and practical challenges, water resilience has the potential to function as a \"frontier concept\", connecting different disciplines and promoting more adaptive and inclusive water governance (Rodina \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWater security is a central concept for sustainable development, encompassing the management of situations of excess, scarcity and contamination of water. Its importance is evidenced by its direct relationship with SDG 6 and its connection with multiple economic, social and environmental sectors. In the face of growing pressures - such as climate change, population growth, urbanization, pollution and scarcity - it is essential to guarantee the supply of safe and accessible water, the protection of ecosystems and resilience to disasters. Water security assessments must consider multiple scales (from the domestic to the global level), interconnected dimensions (human well-being, ecosystems, climate risks and economic development) and temporal variability, using multidisciplinary approaches and specific indicators (Marcal et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"MATERIALS AND METHODS","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethodological Design\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe research adopted a qualitative approach focusing on the critical application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT) tool, developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), with the aim of assessing its usefulness and limitations in measuring the integration of water resilience into climate adaptation plans. The study was conducted in four main phases: (i) technical training on the use of the tool; (ii) obtaining and organizing the documents evaluated; (iii) applying the WRT questionnaire to the plans; and (iv) analyzing the responses and systematizing the findings.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe documents analyzed were 10 sectoral climate plans: Climate Plan - Industry and Mining; Climate Plan - Agriculture and Livestock; Climate Plan - Ocean and Coastal Zone; Climate Plan - Indigenous Peoples; Climate Plan - Energy; Climate Plan - Risk and Disaster Reduction and Management; Climate Plan - Health; Climate Plan - Traditional Peoples and Communities; Climate Plan - Food and Nutrition Security; Climate Plan - Tourism. In addition to three other plans: Brazilian Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought; Climate Action Plan of the Municipality of S\u0026atilde;o Paulo 2020\u0026ndash;2050; Action Plan for Neoindustrialization 2024\u0026ndash;2026.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eStages in the Application of the Water Resilience Tracker\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe team was trained in August 2024 in collaboration with an AGWA member, enabling conceptual alignment with the objectives and principles of the tool. The collection of the document set comprised 16 Sectoral, selected and made available by the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA), prioritized according to criteria of technical maturity and institutional relevance.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDuring the training phase, workshops with some representatives of ministries and technical bodies made it possible to explore institutional perceptions of the tool and its applicability. This interaction was important for contextualizing the documents assessed and understanding possible limitations of the approach.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe application of the tool involved two evaluators, who jointly analyzed each plan based on the 153 questions in the WRT questionnaire, distributed in four main sections and two complementary subsections (see section 2.4). Each item was scored on the basis of explicit, partial or absent evidence, classified respectively as \"strongly supported\" (1), \"somewhat supported\" (2) or \"not included\" (3). The double evaluation process sought to reduce subjectivity and ensure greater methodological consistency. A methodological strategy applied at the end of the evaluation process was for one of the researchers to scan all 153 WRT questions in all the documents, using artificial intelligence, in order to compare the answers of the two researchers.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eComplementary Analytical Techniques\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition to completing the WRT, the study incorporated two complementary qualitative techniques: content analysis and heuristic analysis. Content analysis was used to identify, categorize and interpret relevant excerpts from the plans, allowing inferences to be drawn about the conditions of formulation, the regulatory frameworks and the predominant discourses in the documents. It is a systematic and interpretative procedure that balances methodological rigor and contextual sensitivity, and is widely used in public policy and planning studies (Keller and Najjar \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHeuristic analysis was applied as an interpretative approach based on guiding (or \"heuristic\") principles, which made it possible to detect patterns, gaps and inconsistencies in the way plans incorporate elements of water resilience. This technique is especially useful when evaluating narrative instruments or technical-political documents, in which qualitative variables are central and often not amenable to direct quantification (Keller and Najjar \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo these techniques were added artificial intelligence resources and programming in R and Python, used for textual similarity analysis, automated comparison of excerpts and the development of synthetic visualizations. A calculation report was also drawn up to quantify performance by section, aggregating responses into percentages and making it easier to identify patterns of convergence and divergence between the documents assessed.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eStructure of the Water Resilience Tracker Tool\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Water Resilience Tracker for National Climate Planning is a diagnostic tool structured to strengthen the integration of water management into climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is organized into four main sections:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cul\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eSection 1 - Integration of water in national climate plans: assesses how water is treated in strategic documents, under three main approaches - as a risk, as a sector and as a resource.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eSection 2 - Institutional framework, sustainable development and capacity building: analyzes water governance, alignment with the SDGs, climate justice, capacity building and institutional articulation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eSection 3 - Water in specific sectors and resource allocation: examines the presence of water in sectoral goals and actions (energy, agriculture, health, infrastructure, etc.), as well as cross-impacts.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eSection 4 - Implementation and financing: verifies the feasibility of implementing the proposed actions and their alignment with sources of climate finance.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ul\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe two complementary subsections deal with climate risk management and the specificities of the water sector, including monitoring, efficiency, impacts of extreme events and financial sustainability.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe complete structure contains 153 questions: 19 in Section 1; 31 in Section 2; 61 in Section 3; 42 in Section 4; plus 12 and 8 questions in the subsections, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"RESULTS","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003ePolicy Insights from Applying the WRT to Brazil\u0026rsquo;s Climate Adaptation Plans\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe Water Resilience Tracker was originally conceived as a diagnostic tool for evaluating national climate plans. Its methodological framework and criteria were designed to ensure consistent and comparable analysis between countries, with an emphasis on national-scale policies and broad strategic frameworks. However, its application in different contexts has demonstrated a methodological flexibility that allows for useful adaptations for analysis at regional or sectoral levels, as long as there is articulation with national strategies and relevant thematic areas, such as water security and adaptive planning.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn the Brazilian case, the application of the tool in 10 of the 16 Sectoral Adaptation Plans, linked to the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), represents an unprecedented and methodologically challenging use. The thematic diversity and heterogeneity in the degree of technical maturity of the documents evaluated demanded a careful interpretation of the WRT criteria, respecting their original scope limits. This analytical effort, while revealing in terms of the tool's potential, also highlighted the need for methodological adaptations to more accurately capture the particularities of sectoral policies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHistorically, climate policies in Brazil have prioritized mitigation actions, such as clean development mechanisms, sectoral emissions plans and anti-deforestation programs. However, the insufficient progress of these strategies and the growing evidence of irreversible impacts have led to an emphasis on adaptation policies. The creation of the National Adaptation Plan (2015) and of the CEMADEN (2011) represented a turning point in this path, although their implementation still faces financial and institutional challenges. Integration between climate and sectoral policies remains limited, often marked by contradictions - such as the simultaneous encouragement of low-carbon agriculture and the expansion of agribusiness into forest areas. Given the complexity of the problem, characterized as a \"pernicious problem\", overcoming institutional fragmentation and intersectoral coordination are crucial to consolidating an effective, coherent and equitable climate policy in Brazil (Rodrigues Filho et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWith a focus on reducing socio-economic and environmental impacts, the National Adaptation Strategy proposes coordinated actions that guide states and municipalities and seek to guarantee financial and technological resources for implementing sustainable solutions. The participatory process of drawing up the plan reinforces the need for assessment tools to support the monitoring of water resilience and the effectiveness of public policies in vulnerable contexts (Minist\u0026eacute;rio de Meio Ambiente e Mudan\u0026ccedil;a do Clima - MMA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePractical application revealed situations in which the WRT questionnaire criteria were not fully compatible with the level of detail or the language of the documents assessed. In several cases, relevant decisions were absent or only implicitly mentioned, which required the evaluators to make an inferential reading based on standards and secondary evidence. These methodological limitations reinforce the importance of a second verification stage, aimed at dialog with the ministries and agencies responsible for each plan, in order to clarify intentions, priorities and institutional contexts not made explicit in the texts.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eDespite these challenges, the application of the tool demonstrated its usefulness as a reference framework for promoting systematic and comparative assessments. It has also made it possible to identify formulation patterns, recurring gaps and opportunities for improving sectoral adaptation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethodological Complementation and Analytical Deepening\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo increase the robustness of the analysis and deal with the limits of the tool in its original use, complementary approaches were incorporated, such as content analysis and heuristic analysis. These techniques made it possible to interpret the documents in a more contextualized way, revealing structural elements, argumentative patterns and implicit dimensions that would not have been detectable by the WRT score alone.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the use of computational tools in the R and Python environments made it possible to develop specific metrics, textual similarity analyses and visualizations that helped interpret the data and identify convergences and divergences between the plans. These additional analyses, presented in greater detail in section 5, go beyond the original scope of the tool and represent a methodological innovation that contributes to its improvement and adaptation to new contexts.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOvercoming the challenges of water security requires coordinated actions, such as the adoption of integrated approaches, innovative solutions, adaptive policies and robust investments in infrastructure. In addition, it is crucial to strengthen water governance through social participation, strategic planning, reliable databases and science-policy dialog. Indicators, when well applied, guide decisions, monitor progress and encourage continuous improvement through benchmarking. Therefore, achieving water security implies not only having technical and institutional tools, but also promoting social justice, equity and long-term sustainability (Marcal et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003ePotentialities and Limitations of the Tool\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe application of the Water Resilience Tracker in the context of Brazilian sectoral plans has allowed us to identify various potentialities of the tool as a structured instrument for assessing water resilience in public policies. One of the main merits observed was its ability to offer a comprehensive analytical framework, which articulates multiple dimensions of water management from the perspective of climate adaptation. The thematic segmentation of the questionnaire into sections and subsections facilitates the organization of the analysis and promotes a systematic reading of the presence (or absence) of strategic elements in the documents evaluated.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother positive point refers to the tool's usefulness as a mechanism for raising institutional awareness. The application process, especially when accompanied by dialogue with representatives from different sectors, proved useful in fostering recognition of the centrality of water as a cross-cutting vector for adaptation. The tool also showed potential to serve as a basis for monitoring and continuous improvement of climate strategies, by allowing comparisons over time and between sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, the practical experience of applying it has revealed important methodological limitations. Firstly, the original scope of the tool, aimed at national plans, makes it difficult to adapt it immediately to documents with a smaller scope or less standardized language, as is the case with many sectoral plans. At various times, it was necessary to resort to inferential interpretations to assign scores to criteria whose presence was not explicit in the texts - which increases the degree of subjectivity of the analysis.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the density and length of the questionnaire, made up of 153 items, implies a considerable workload and requires evaluators familiar not only with the tool, but also with the institutional and regulatory context of the documents. The lack of automated mechanisms for processing the answers limits the scalability of the application in large-scale evaluations, especially in countries with a high number of decentralized plans or documents.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe analysis of ten documents linked to the National Adaptation Policy, which cover different public policy sectors in Brazil, provided a cross-sectional view of the challenges and opportunities for improving the implementation of adaptive measures in a country of continental dimensions. Among other aspects, the occurrence of overlapping strategies in certain territories was identified, highlighting concrete opportunities for integrating initiatives and optimizing adaptation efforts, especially in regions considered strategic. It should be noted that the detailed results of these assessments will be presented in a subsequent specific publication.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe study also placed the policies side by side with the principles of climate justice and the debate on environmental racism. This highlighted the need to make them fairer for indigenous peoples, quilombola communities, riverside communities and peripheral populations, who tend to suffer climate impacts more severely.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother recurring point concerns nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation. Although they appear in some of the plans, there is a lack of clear guidelines and a more synthetic analysis that allows these approaches to be incorporated in a coherent way throughout the national territory.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFinally, the issue of water still lacks depth: we still need a more detailed assessment of the allocation and use of water resources that recognizes all the \"users\" of water, including aquatic ecosystems, and not just the traditional productive sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eContributions and Challenges for the Brazilian Context\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe findings of the application of the Water Resilience Tracker in Brazilian sectoral plans converge with the approach proposed by the OECD (2022), which highlights the need for a conceptual and practical transition from models based on risk management to resilience-oriented models. This change implies not only the ability to respond to extreme events, but also systemic preparation to face structural uncertainties, such as those associated with climate change, urbanization and pressure on natural resources.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe field of water resilience is largely fragmented and dominated by conventional engineering approaches focused on infrastructure maintenance and continuity of supply. Since 2007, driven by debates on climate change, the concept has begun to incorporate broader perspectives, such as socio-ecological systems, urban, community and institutional resilience. Most studies focus on local scales, especially urban water supply, with an emphasis on threats such as droughts and climate impacts (Rodina, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe application of the WRT showed that although the tool clearly organizes the fundamental dimensions of water resilience - governance, sectoral integration, financing and implementation - the effective assessment of these aspects depends heavily on the maturity of the documents, institutional clarity and the quality of the available data. This finding is echoed in the criticism of the National Water Security Plan (PNSH) in the OECD report, which warns against the use of historical records without due consideration of future climate scenarios, compromising the robustness of long-term water infrastructure actions.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe critical impacts of climate change on water resources - such as altered precipitation patterns, increased demand and deteriorating water quality - reinforce that adaptation is inevitable given the limitations of mitigation. Successful adaptation requires integration with other political objectives, public participation, institutional learning and strategies tailored to local realities, going beyond exclusively structural approaches. Adaptive governance is a promising path, especially in vulnerable contexts, and must involve institutional changes, organizational behaviour and the strategic use of technologies and knowledge (Karimi et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn addition, the report reinforces the importance of green infrastructure, economic instruments and multi-level governance as pillars of resilience - aspects that the WRT considers, but whose applicability varies significantly between the plans analyzed. The tool's potential to promote integrated diagnoses and identify cross-cutting gaps between sectors such as energy, agriculture and sanitation is in line with international recommendations, but requires, in the Brazilian context, a strengthening of technical capacity, the production of strategic data and coordination between spheres of government.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnother relevant point raised by the OECD concerns continuous institutional evaluation, the adoption of dynamic indicators and the need for adaptive monitoring, all principles that could be more explicitly integrated into the WRT structure in future versions. The absence of fields for qualitative contextualization of responses in the tool's questionnaire - identified as a limitation in this study - is also recognized as an obstacle to the operationalization of resilience in public policies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFinally, it should be noted that dialogue between diagnostic tools such as the Water Resilience Tracker and guidance reports such as the OECD's is essential for improving both. While the report provides normative and structural guidelines based on international experiences, the use of the tool in real contexts makes it possible to test its applicability, generate evidence and propose methodological adjustments. This feedback is essential to move forward in building more robust, coherent and fair public adaptation policies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"CONCLUSIONS","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe application of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT) to thirteen Brazilian climate adaptation plans (10 sectoral climate plans: Climate Plan - Industry and Mining; Climate Plan - Agriculture and Livestock; Climate Plan - Ocean and Coastal Zone; Climate Plan - Indigenous Peoples; Climate Plan - Energy; Climate Plan - Risk and Disaster Reduction and Management; Climate Plan - Health; Climate Plan - Traditional Peoples and Communities; Climate Plan - Food and Nutrition Security; Climate Plan - Tourism. In addition to three other plans: Brazilian Action Plan to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought; Climate Action Plan of the Municipality of S\u0026atilde;o Paulo 2020\u0026ndash;2050; Action Plan for Neoindustrialization 2024\u0026ndash;2026) demonstrated the tool\u0026rsquo;s potential to systematically identify critical gaps, patterns of integration, and strengths in sectoral strategies related to water resilience. Its structured questionnaire enabled a comparative and heuristic analysis of the documents, offering insights aligned with international principles of adaptive governance, such as those advocated by the OECD.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHowever, the experience also revealed key limitations. The interpretative demands of the WRT criteria, the high density of its questions, and the need for contextual calibration pose operational challenges for national and subnational actors. Furthermore, although the tool addresses institutional, technical, and governance dimensions, it lacks a robust economic assessment component. This omission limits the capacity to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, financing feasibility, and macroeconomic implications of proposed adaptation measures\u0026mdash;an essential aspect for informing public investment decisions and aligning sectoral plans with sustainable finance strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn summary, while the WRT proved valuable for guiding policy coherence and enhancing the quality of climate adaptation planning, its full potential would be better realized with the incorporation of an economic dimension. Future iterations of the tool would benefit from integrating financial indicators and economic evaluation criteria to support the development of adaptation strategies that are not only technically sound and socially just but also economically viable. Although the WRT proved valuable for identifying patterns and gaps across climate plans, a significant limitation observed was the absence of criteria or indicators to evaluate economic feasibility and financing structures. This gap constrains its capacity to fully support decision-making processes involving resource allocation. Addressing this limitation in future versions of the tool would strengthen its relevance for policy implementation and institutional planning.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eSandra Milena V\u0026eacute;lez-Echeverry, PhDConceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing.Michael Becker, MSc.Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing.Marina Oliveira de Souza Dias, PhD.Writing- Original draft preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.Ellen de Lima Souza, PhD.Writing- Original draft preparation, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.Adriana Marques, PhD.Conceptualization, Methodology, Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writ-ing- Reviewing and Editing.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe authors would like to thank the MMA/Unifesp partnership for the financial resources necessary for the research through the FapUnifesp Notice 109/2024 and for the opportunity to contribute knowledge on such a relevant topic as adaptation to climate change and water resilience in the context of environmental and climate public policies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFunding Declaration and Acknowledgments\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe authors would like to thank the MMA/Unifesp partnership for the financial resources necessary for the research through the FapUnifesp Notice 109/2024 and for the opportunity to contribute knowledge on such a relevant topic as adaptation to climate change and water resilience in the context of environmental and climate public policies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003eDeclaration of Generative AI and AI-assisted Technologies in the Writing Process\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eDuring the preparation of this work the author(s) used ChatGPT to improve the language in technical and scientific terms suitable for an international publication. After using this tool/service, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the publication.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAquino D de P, Irving M de A, Oliveira ME de, Ferreira GF (2024) Emerg\u0026ecirc;ncia Clim\u0026aacute;tica: da agenda global ao contexto de desmobiliza\u0026ccedil;\u0026atilde;o das pol\u0026iacute;ticas p\u0026uacute;blicas nacionais. 1\u0026ndash;22. \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://doi.org/10.29327/1375743.11-3\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"10.29327/1375743.11-3\" targettype=\"DOI\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFalkenmark M, Wang-Erlandsson L, Rockstr\u0026ouml;m J (2019) Understanding of water resilience in the Anthropocene. 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Rev Bras Climatol 19:74\u0026ndash;90. \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v19i0.48874\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"10.5380/abclima.v19i0.48874\" targettype=\"DOI\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Water Resilience Tracker, climate adaptation, public policy, water governance, multi-level governance, policy assessment, Brazil","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7321098/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7321098/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eStrengthening water resilience is a strategic priority in the face of increasing climate-related impacts on natural, social, and economic systems. This study presents a critical assessment of the Water Resilience Tracker (WRT), a tool developed by the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA), applied to evaluate 13 national and subnational adaptation and strategic plans in Brazil. The research followed a four-phase qualitative design\u0026mdash;training, document organization, tool application, and synthesis\u0026mdash;complemented by content analysis, heuristic evaluation, and computational techniques (R and Python). The results reveal the tool\u0026rsquo;s usefulness in identifying gaps, inconsistencies, and integration deficits in sectoral planning, highlighting opportunities for improving coherence, institutional articulation, and adaptive capacity. However, methodological challenges were observed, including subjectivity in scoring, complexity of interpretation across diverse plans, and the absence of economic evaluation indicators. The experience demonstrates the WRT\u0026rsquo;s potential to enhance decision-making and climate governance by offering a structured framework for policy assessment, especially in contexts of decentralization and policy fragmentation. The findings align with OECD recommendations for promoting water resilience in Brazil, emphasizing the need for multi-level governance, cross-sectoral alignment, and investment in institutional capacity. This study contributes to the refinement of climate adaptation assessment tools and supports the use of diagnostic frameworks to inform the design of integrated and socially responsive policies under conditions of climatic uncertainty.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluating Brazil’s Sectoral Climate Adaptation Plans: Application of the Water Resilience Tracker","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-15 13:43:29","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7321098/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"438a1e1b-56c0-46c6-9f83-a2de07c5be4b","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 15th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-16T15:38:06+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-15 13:43:29","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7321098","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7321098","identity":"rs-7321098","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}