COVID-19 Vaccination Trajectory and the Speed Needed to Reach at Least 70% Population Coverage in 52 African Countries: A Modelling Study

Background: Driven by the global imperatives to end the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO in 2021 set a target to fully vaccinate 70% of the world’s population by mid-2022. We modelled the timelines by which 52 African countries will achieve the WHO target and estimated the speed needed to reach at least 70% coverage, if the target is extended to December 2022.Methods: We obtained publicly available daily COVID-19 vaccination data from the WHO Africa COVID-19 Vaccination Dashboard, covering the first nine months following vaccine deployments. A deterministic compartmental model was parameterized and fitted to the number of COVID cases and vaccination coverage, within a Bayesian framework.Findings: As of February 2022, Mauritius and Seychelles have already achieved the target, while seven other countries are on course to achieve the 70% target by December 2022. Burundi, Chad, DR Congo, Niger, and Nigeria are not likely to achieve the WHO target in the nearest future. More than half of all countries (51%) will achieve the 70% target between 2025 and 2039 if the current trajectory is maintained. Forty-three of the 52 (83%) African countries must increase their current vaccination rates by at least a factor of two to achieve the target by December 2022. Of these, 49% (21/43) must ramp up their current vaccination rates by a factor ranging from 10-100 to achieve the 70% target by December 2022.Interpretation: African countries must review and align their vaccine deployment plans with specific epidemiological scenarios while addressing contextual issues around vaccines demand and uptake.Funding Information: None.Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests.