Changes in the recent habitat suitability of Euro-Mediterranean Anopheles species due to land-use and climate

Changes in the recent habitat suitability of Euro-Mediterranean Anopheles species due to land-use and climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Changes in the recent habitat suitability of Euro-Mediterranean Anopheles species due to land-use and climate Christian Merkenschlager, Freddy Bangelesa, Heiko Paeth, Elke Hertig This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7083923/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Parasites & Vectors → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Habitat suitability of Anopheles mosquitoes depends on appropriate climate and land-use conditions. Anopheles are the main vectors for malaria transmissions in the Euro-Mediterranean region. There is major concern that there will be a spread or shift of Anopheles species due to the expected climate and land-use change. This study aims to identify the main climate and land-use drivers for changes in the habitat suitability for six different Anopheles species between 2000 and 2020 within the Euro-Mediterranean region. Methods: Boosted Regression Trees were applied to establish the link between climate and land-use predictors and habitat suitability. An ensemble of 16 models, based on different methods of selecting background points and statistical predictors, was applied to each species. The ensemble was evaluated by means of model skill and transferability to identify the best model. Under consideration of contribution, interactions and response range, the most important predictors and those responsible for changes were identified. Results: The model ensembles agree on the direction of change for four species within the study area, with two showing an overall increase ( An. atroparvus, An. sacharovi ) of areas with suitable conditions and two showing a decrease ( An. messeae, An. sergentii ). Climate change is mainly responsible for shifts in the habitat suitability. Only a few models attribute changes mainly to land-use. The limited influence of land-use changes may be due to the too coarse spatial resolution. For most species, temperature-related bioclimatic variables (BIO4, BIO5, BIO8) are the most important predictors for changes in habitat suitability. A superior method for either the specific background points or predictor selection did not emerge, because they depend on the species analyzed. Conclusions: Between 2000 and 2020, rising temperatures were the main driver of changes in the habitat suitability of the Anopheles species in the Euro-Mediterranean region, with land-use changes having a relatively minor impact. Especially regions to the north of the distribution area are characterized by a greater habitat suitability, while regions to the south show decreasing trends. This may also impact the risk of local malaria transmission in these regions. Anopheles habitat suitability climate change land-use change Euro-Mediterranean area Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementary.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Parasites & Vectors → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 13 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 11 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 11 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 09 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7083923","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":486161812,"identity":"4d7edc47-004c-4044-8438-3a20aaf4039f","order_by":0,"name":"Christian 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There is major concern that there will be a spread or shift of \u003cem\u003eAnopheles\u003c/em\u003e species due to the expected climate and land-use change. This study aims to identify the main climate and land-use drivers for changes in the habitat suitability for six different \u003cem\u003eAnopheles\u003c/em\u003especies between 2000 and 2020 within the Euro-Mediterranean region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods: \u003c/strong\u003eBoosted Regression Trees were applied to establish the link between climate and land-use predictors and habitat suitability. An ensemble of 16 models, based on different methods of selecting background points and statistical predictors, was applied to each species. The ensemble was evaluated by means of model skill and transferability to identify the best model. Under consideration of contribution, interactions and response range, the most important predictors and those responsible for changes were identified.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults: \u003c/strong\u003eThe model ensembles agree on the direction of change for four species within the study area, with two showing an overall increase (\u003cem\u003eAn. atroparvus, An. sacharovi\u003c/em\u003e) of areas with suitable conditions and two showing a decrease (\u003cem\u003eAn. messeae, An. sergentii\u003c/em\u003e). Climate change is mainly responsible for shifts in the habitat suitability. Only a few models attribute changes mainly to land-use. The limited influence of land-use changes may be due to the too coarse spatial resolution. For most species, temperature-related bioclimatic variables (BIO4, BIO5, BIO8) are the most important predictors for changes in habitat suitability. 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