Keywords
epidemic; general population; healthcare workers; frontline healthcare workers
Trial registration: CRD4202022059
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1. INTRODUCTION
Since its first publicly known cases in Wuhan, China, on November 17, 2019, the
COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) crisis has become one of the worst epidemics in
human record (World Health Organization, 2020). The sudden outburst of this highly
infectious disease and the containment measures such as quarantine and social distancing
have posed an unprecedented disruption on the life and work of the general population and
healthcare workers (HCWs) (Douglas et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020h). Their mental health
conditions under the COVID-19 epidemic have been documented first and most extensively
to date in China (Bareeqa et al., 2020; Pappa, 2020). The accumulating number of such
studies has triggered several rapid meta-analyses (Bareeqa et al., 2020; Kisely et al., 2020;
Krishnamoorthy et al., 2020; Pappa, 2020; Ren et al., 2020a; Salari et al., 2020b), which have
provided important initial evidence on the prevalence of mental issues at the onset of the
COVID-19 crisis. One year into the COVID-19 crisis, from November 17, 2019, to
November 16, 2020, we see the values of a systematic review and meta-analysis to contribute
above and beyond these meta-analyses in four major directions.
First, rapid meta-analyses generally include a dozen studies (Pappa, 2020; Ren et al.,
2020a; Salari et al., 2020a), most from the onset of the COVID-19 crisis; hence new
systematic reviews and meta-analyses are needed to update the evidence that quickly
accumulates. Our pooled prevalence rates are significantly different from, yet largely
between, the findings of previous meta-analyses, suggesting our larger meta-analysis is
consistent with yet revises the findings of the much smaller, previous meta-analyses. The
significance of the difference between our much larger meta-analysis and the previous studies
suggests a need to update meta-analyses continuously to provide more accurate estimates of
the prevalence rates of mental illness during this ongoing COVID-19 epidemic.
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Second, early rapid meta-analysis papers often pooled different mental disorders or
distinct populations together due to the smaller numbers of studies included. However, such
practices inadvertently contribute to the differences in their prevalence rates. Despite the fact
that individual papers often use and report varying levels of cutoff values, most meta-
analyses report the prevalence rates of mental health only by mild symptoms’ severity
e.g., (Luo
et al., 2020; Pappa et al., 2020). We are able to identify the major populations in the published studies
(the general population, HCWs, and frontline HCWs who deal with COVID-19 patients), the
major mental health outcomes (anxiety, depression, insomnia, distress, and PTSD), and the
severity of outcomes (above mild, above moderate, and above severe). Moreover, we run
subgroup analysis and meta-regression to reveal important differences between the mental
disorders.
Third, given the large heterogeneity in terms of not only the COVID cases and deaths
but also the containment strategies and hospital capacities and readiness to handle COVID-19
cases across countries(Jahanshahi et al., 2020; Zhuo et al., 2020), there are some benefits to
focusing on a single country. China seems to be the first country that experienced the COVID
crisis and has had a sufficient number of empirical studies to conduct such a meta-analysis.
Fourth, given our scope of the systematic review over a year of the COVID-19 crisis,
our work provides a more comprehensive assessment of evidence, which is urgently needed
to guide future mental health papers in the continued global pandemic. Furthermore, based on
a year of mental health papers under COVID-19, we observe and provide a list of concrete
issues in individual mental health papers to guide this important and proliferating stream of
research.
2. METHODS
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This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with the
Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement
2019 and registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews
(PROSPERO: CRD42020220592).
2.1 Data Sources and Search Strategy
We conducted a comprehensive literature search in the databases of PubMed, Embase,
and Web of Science. Our search query, shown in Table S1, was entered with Boolean
operators to search the titles, abstracts, keywords, and subject headings (for example, Mesh
terms) in each database. To account for preprints, we searched medRxiv (medrxiv.org). We
started our search on November 10, 2020, and finalized it on November 16, 2020, one year
after the first publicly known COVID-19 case (Bryner, March 14, 2020), in order to cover the
first year of the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, we checked the references of earlier rapid
meta-analyses to identify other studies that may fit this review. Figure 1 details the flow chart
of our search process.
2.2 Selection Criteria
The studies are included in our meta-analysis based on the following criteria:
a. Context: COVID-19 epidemic in China
b. Population: frontline HCWs, general HCWs, and general adult population
c. Outcome: at least one mental disorder outcomes, e.g., anxiety, depression, distress,
general psychological symptoms (GPS), insomnia, and PTSD
d. Instrument: validated scales with cutoff points for the mental health outcomes
e. Language: English.
According, we excluded studies that meet the following criteria:
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a. Population: children, adolescents, or specific niche adult populations such as
COVID-19 patients, inpatients, or other patients, adults under quarantine,
pregnant/postpartum women
b. Methodological approaches: non-primary studies such as reviews or meta-analyses,
qualitative or case studies without a validated instrument, interventional studies,
interviews, or news reports
c. Measurements: non-validated mental health instruments (i.e., self-made
questionnaire) or instruments without a validated cutoff score to calculate a
prevalence rate (i.e., STAI, SCL-90 for anxiety and depression).
We contacted the authors of papers that missed some critical information if the articles:
a. Contain primary data on mental health of relevant population using established
instruments under COVID-19 period but do not report the prevalence rates. For
example, a study may report the mean and SD of our outcomes but not their
prevalence rates.
b. Surveyed a sample that mixed our targeted population and other populations, such as
children, in a manner such that we could not extract the prevalence rate(s) for our
targeted population. We included the studies that authors provided prevalence rate for
our targeted population only and excluded the studies with mixed populations.
c. Miss some critical information, such as the data collection time or location.
d. Are unclear on critical information. For example, some articles are unclear whether
they used the cutoff for mild or moderate symptoms to calculate the overall
prevalence rates of mental issues.
2.3 Selection Process and Data Extraction
The articles that passed the inclusion criteria were exported into an EndNote library
where we identified duplications and then imported to Rayyan for screening. Two researchers
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(L.T. and Y.Y.) independently screened the articles based on their titles and abstracts. If both
coders excluded an article independently, it was excluded.
Six researchers (X.C, M.Z., R.C., Z.D., R.D., B.C.) were paired to assess the
eligibility of each paper based on reading its full text and extracting the relevant data into a
coding book based on a coding protocol. The coding book records information such as the
authors and year of the paper, title, publication status, sample locations, date of data
collection, sample size, response rate, population, age (mean, SD, min and max), gender
proportion, instruments, cutoff scores used, the prevalence/mean/SD of the mental health
outcome, and other notes or comments. Pairs of researchers first double-coded and
crosschecked each paper independently. The remaining discrepancies after the crosscheck
were discussed between the pair of coders. In cases where a pair of coders continued to
disagree, a lead coder (X.C.) checked the paper independently and discussed it with the two
original coders to determine its coding. The lead coder also integrated and reviewed all the
coding information. Particularly, the lead coder checked the mental outcomes, instruments,
outcome levels, and cutoff scores reported given the multitude of reporting practices in
individual papers. We were able to identify papers that used unusual cutoff scores later for
sensitivity analysis.
2.4 Assessment of Bias Risk
Following other meta-analyses (de Pablo et al., 2020; Usher et al., 2020), we used the
Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) (Hong et al., 2018), including seven questions to
conduct the quality assessment of the studies. Pairs of coders independently evaluated the
risk of bias and quality of the studies and rated them based on the MMAT. Most
discrepancies were resolved through a discussion between the pair of researchers, and any
disagreement after discussions was resolved by a lead researcher. Papers were classed into
high (6 - 7) or medium quality (lower than 6).
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2.5 Statistical Analysis
To analyze the data in a consistent manner, we ensure the independence of mental
health disorders and samples. For instance, for studies that examine a mental health outcome
with more than one instrument, we report the results based on the most popular instrument. If
a study reported several prevalence rates by several cutoffs, we use one of them, in the
following order of preference: above the severe cutoff, above the moderate cutoff, and above
the mild cutoff. Thus, only one prevalence rate for a mental health outcome in a population is
entered into the meta-analysis to ensure the samples remain independent.
The overall prevalence and 95% confidence intervals of psychological outcomes were
pooled using Stata 16.1. Similar to prior studies on the prevalence of mental issues, the
random-effects model was used to extract the pooled estimates (DerSimonian and Laird,
1986). We reported the heterogeneity by the I
2 statistic, which measures the percentage of
variance resulting from true differences in the effect sizes rather than the sampling error
(Higgins et al., 2019). We performed subgroup analyses by the key potential sources of
heterogeneity of outcomes (six types of mental health disorders), severity of outcome (above
mild/above moderate/above severe), and three major population groups (frontline HCWs,
general HCWs, general population). Furthermore, given the high degree of heterogeneity of
the true differences in the effect sizes, we ran a meta-regression to regress the prevalence
upon not only these three category variables (outcome, severity, and population) but also
female proportion, data collection time, data collection location (Wuhan vs. non-Wuhan),
sample size, and study quality. We included data collection time to examine whether the
mental issues change over time dynamically. While the COVID-19 crisis continues to evolve,
there is a lack of dynamic analysis on the mental disorders of any population over time.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted, and Funnel plots were used to assess publication bias.
Significance level was set as two-sided and p<0.05.
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3. RESULTS
3.1 Study Screening
Our systematic search (Figure 1) across all the databases yielded 5431 potentially
relevant papers, out of which 2365 were duplications and removed. Of the remaining 3066
papers, we screened their titles and abstracts in the first stage and the full text of the 445
articles in the second stage. We also emailed the authors of 43 articles that missed critical
information and were able to get the information to include 10 additional studies. Altogether,
the process generated 131 articles for this meta-analysis (An et al., 2020; Ben-Ezra et al.; Cai
et al.; Cao et al., 2020; Chen et al.; Chen et al.; Chen et al.; Chen et al.; Chen et al., 2020;
Cheng et al.; Choi et al.; Dai, 2020; Dong et al., 2020; Du et al., 2020; Elhai et al., 2020;
Fang et al., 2020; Feng et al., 2020; Fong et al., 2020; Fu et al., 2020; Gao, 2020; Guo, 2020;
Guo et al., 2020; Han et al., 2020; Hong et al., 2020; Hou et al., 2020; Hu et al., 2020a; Hu et
al., 2020b; Huang et al., 2020a; Huang et al., 2020c; Huang et al., 2020d; Jin et al., 2020;
Juan et al., 2020; Lai et al., 2020; Lam et al., 2020; Lei et al., 2020; Leng et al., 2020; Li; Li
et al., 2020a; Li et al., 2020b; Li et al., 2020c; Li, 2020a; Li et al., 2020d; Li, 2020b; Li et al.,
2020e; Li et al., 2020f; Li et al., 2020g; Liang et al., 2020; Lin et al., 2020a; Lin et al., 2020b;
Liu, 2020; Liu, in press; Liu et al., 2020a; Liu et al., 2020b; Liu et al., 2020c; Liu et al.,
2020d; Liu et al., 2020e; Liu et al., 2020f; Lu et al., 2020a; Lu et al., 2020b; Lu et al., 2020c;
Mi et al., 2020; Ni et al., 2020a; Ni et al., 2020b; Ning et al., 2020; Pan et al., 2020a; Pan et
al., 2020b; Qi, 2020; Qian, 2020; Qian et al., 2020; Qiu et al., 2020; Que et al., 2020; Ren et
al., 2020b; Shi et al., 2020; Si et al., 2020; Song et al., 2020; Song, 2020; Su et al., 2020; Sun
et al., 2020a; Sun, 2020; Sun et al., 2020b; Sun et al., 2020c; Tan et al., 2020; Teng et al.,
2020; Tu et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020a; Wang et al., 2020b; Wang et al., 2020c; Wang et
al., 2020d; Wang et al., 2020e; Wang et al., 2020f; Wang et al., 2020g; Wang et al., 2020h;
Wang et al., 2020i; Wang et al., 2020j; Wu et al., 2020a; Wu et al., 2020b; Wu et al., 2020c;
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Xiao et al., 2020; Xiaoming et al., 2020; Xing et al., 2020; Xiong et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2020;
Yang et al., 2020a; Yang et al., 2020b; Yin et al., 2020; Yin et al.; Ying et al., 2020; Yu et al.,
2020a; Yu et al., 2020b; Zhan et al., 2020a; Zhan et al., 2020b; Zhang et al., 2020a; Zhang et
al., 2020b; Zhang et al., 2020c; Zhang, 2020; Zhang et al., 2020f; Zhang et al., 2020i; Zhang
et al., 2020j; Zhang et al., 2020k; Zhang and Ma, 2020; Zhang et al., 2020m; Zhao et al.,
2020a; Zhao et al., 2020b; Zhao et al., 2020c; Zhou et al., 2020a; Zhou et al., 2020b; Zhou et
al., 2020c; Zhu et al., 2020a; Zhu et al., 2020b; Zhu et al., 2020c; Zhu, 2020).
3.2 Study Characteristics
The 131 papers included contains 171 samples (Table S2) with a total of 630,244
individual participants. Table 1 summarizes their key characteristics. Among the 171
independent samples, about a quarter of them studied frontline HCWs and general HCWs
(27.5% and 26.9%, respectively), and almost half studied the general population (45.6%).
More than one-third of samples covered anxiety and depression. Another one-third
investigated other mental issues including insomnia, PTSD, distress, and general
psychological symptoms (GPS) (15.0%, 8.4%, 2.5%, and 2.0%, respectively). Respectively,
23.7%, 46.4%, and 29.9% of samples reported prevalence rates at the mild above, moderate
above, and severe above level by the severity of the symptoms.
Almost all the studies, 126 out of 131, employed cross-sectional surveys; specifically,
9 (6.9%) conducted the survey in January 2020, 85 (64.9%) in February, 23 (17.6%) in
March, and 14 (10.6%) in April or later. Almost one-quarter of them (22.2%) contained a
sample targeting populations in Wuhan. Most studies were published in journals, and 10
(7.6%) studies remained as preprints. The assessment based on the Mixed Methods Appraisal
Tool (MMAT) indicated 100 (73.3%) studies were of good quality (score no less than 6 out
of 7) and 31 studies were of medium quality (score less than 6 but greater than 4). The
median number of individuals per sample was 709 (range: 30 to 123,768) with a median
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female proportion of 69% (range: 12% to 100%) and a median response rate of 5% (range: 14%
to 100%).
The 131 papers employed a wide arrange of instruments to assess mental health
(Table S3). For both anxiety and depression, PHQ (60.6%, 63.3%) and SAS (23.6%, 13.3%)
are the first and second most popular measures; distress is measured the most by K6 (44.4%),
followed by IES-R (22.2%); insomnia is measured by ISI (63.2%) and PSQI (29.8%); PTSD
by IES-R (40.0%), PCL-C (26.7%), and PCL-5 (26.7%); and general psychological
symptoms by SRQ-20 (100.0%). Please see the details in Table S3.
3.3 Major Issues from Findings of the Key Study Characteristics
Our systematic review reveals several widespread issues in mental health research during
COVID-19: a wide array of instruments, inconsistent reporting of prevalence rates,
inconsistent use and reporting of cutoff points, different cutoff values to determine the overall
prevalence as well as the severity, and other issues on reporting standards and terminologies.
A myriad of instruments. The individual papers on mental health research during
COVID-19 employed a wide variety of instruments with varying degrees of popularity and
validity (summarized in Table S3). The wide array of instruments, especially the use of less
frequently used instruments (i.e., AIS, BAI/BDI), certainly has some benefit but makes it
hard to make comparisons or accumulate evidence.
Admixed outcome severity level. The individual papers reported the prevalence rates at a
range of severity of the symptoms. First, the articles differ in their terminology when
reporting the overall prevalence rates. Some papers used the overall prevalence rate to
indicate the percentage with moderate symptoms or above, other papers used it to indicate the
percentage with mild symptoms or above
e.g., (Du et al., 2020) (Zhang et al., 2020b) . Even worse, a large
number of papers did not specify the definition of the overall prevalence rate, rendering it
impossible to know whether it refers to above mild or moderate levels. Second, some papers
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use other terminologies, such as “extremely severe” (Ozamiz-Etxebarria et al., 2020), “very
severe” (Moghanibashi-Mansourieh, 2020), or “very high” (Temsah, 2020), “moderate-
severe” e.g., (Guiroy et al., 2020), “moderate to severe” (Moccia et al., 2020; Wang et al.,
2020a), “moderately severe” e.g., (Xiaoming et al., 2020), and “poor” (Wang et al., 2020f),
which often is not clear in terms of the cutoff points used to categorize those symptoms. We
opted to recode all the papers that indicate their cutoff scores manually(Antony et al., 1998;
Beusenberg et al., 1994; Blevins et al., 2015; Buysse et al., 1989; Cheng et al., 2002; Cheung
et al., 2007; Creamer et al., 2003; Dai, 2020; Dobie et al., 2002; Guo et al., 2017; Health;
Kessler et al., 2010; Kroenke et al., 2001; Kroenke et al., 2009; Lee et al., 2018; Matza et al.,
2010; Morin et al., 2011; Prins et al., 2016; Qiu et al., 2020; Schlenger et al., 2002; Soldatos
et al., 2000; Spitzer et al., 2006; Thoresen et al., 2010; Tsai et al., 2005; Wang et al., 2017;
Wang et al., 2011; Wilberforce et al., 2010; Wu et al., 2003; Zigmond and Snaith, 1983;
Zimmerman et al., 2013; Zung, 1965, 1971;
王春芳 et al., 1986); however, these
terminologies may contribute to the heterogeneity and confusion in accumulating evidence.
Clarity on the cutoff points used to determine severity. Some papers employed
nonstandard or unusual cutoff scores e.g., (Elhai et al., 2020), at times without referencing validation
studies that supported the use of those special cutoff scores e.g., (Cai et al.; Song et al., 2020). Some
papers did not report the cutoff score used or provide any references e.g., (Cao et al., 2020; Sun et al.,
2020b), making the assessment difficult. Such issues seem to occur particularly in studies that
used PSQI, IES-R and DASS-21, and CES-D.
3.4. Pooled Prevalence Rates of Mental Health Disorders
The prevalence rates of the 171 samples were pooled by the subgroups (Table 2). First,
the overall prevalence rates of mental health disorders that surpassed the cutoff values of
mild, moderate, and severe symptoms were 27%, 18%, and 3%, respectively. The overall
prevalence of mental health disorder frontline HCWs, general HCWs, and the general
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population in China are 17%, 14%, and 12%, respectively. The overall prevalence of anxiety,
depression, distress, GPS, insomnia, and PTSD are 11%, 13%, 20%, 13%, 19%, and 20%.
Figure 2 graphically depicts such findings of the pooled analysis by subgroups using forest
plots.
3.5 Meta-regression on the Prevalence of Mental Health Disorders
To better explain the heterogeneity of the prevalence of mental health disorders, Table
3 reports the results of a meta-regression analysis. The meta-analytical model explained over
40% of the variance of mental health disorders among these studies (R-squared = 41.0%, I2 =
100%, tau2 = 0.11). The prevalence of severe mental health disorders is significantly lower
than that of moderate mental illness (p<0.01), which is in turn significantly lower than those
of mild mental illness (p<0.01). The prevalence of mental health disorders of frontline HCWs
is significantly higher than that of general HCWs (p<0.004). General HCWs and the general
population do not differ in their mental health prevalence rates. The prevalence rates of
depression (p=0.04) and insomnia (p=0.04) are significantly higher than that of anxiety, and
the rates of general psychological symptoms (p=0.20) and PTSD (p=0.20) do not differ
significantly from that of anxiety. Interestingly, the prevalence of mental health disorders of
participants in Wuhan, the epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis, was significantly lower than
that in non-Wuhan samples in China (p=0.04). The prevalence rates of mental health
disorders were higher in studies of papers with a higher quality rating (p=0.03). The female
proportion (p=0.54), date of data collection (p=0.64), sample size of studies (p=0.16), or
publication status (p=0.80) did not predict the prevalence rates significantly.
The meta-analytical results enable the prediction of prevalence rates while taking
account of the influence of multiple factors and hence offer a superior model over the earlier
pooled analyses. In other words, the meta-regression model considers multiple predictors of
mental health disorders in a single model at the same time instead of the approach of
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considering one predictor at a time by pooled prevalence, the typical method to estimate the
prevalence of mental health disorder in prior meta-analytical papers in COVID-19 literature.
Hence, based on the results of the meta-regression, we report the predicted prevalence rates
of varying severity levels of the symptoms of different mental health disorders of frontline
HCWs, general HCWs, and the general population. Table 4 and Figure 3 show the predicted
prevalence rates of mental health disorders by populations, outcomes, and severity by the
meta-analytical regression model. As illustrated in Figure 3, the prevalence rates vary greatly
by the mental health outcomes and severity. The prevalence rates are lower when using a
higher level of severity, which drives the heterogeneity of prevalence rate to a large degree.
Among the different types of mental health outcomes, distress seems to be the most prevalent
among all three populations.
3.6 Sensitivity Analysis
Our meta-analytical model was able to take account of the impact of several factors,
such as publication status (insignificant), sample size (insignificant), and article quality score
(significant). Furthermore, we conducted our analysis with the exclusion of each study one-
by-one from the meta-analytic model and found it did not significantly alter the findings. The
visual inspection of the sensitivity plot however revealed that there is significant asymmetry.
Figure 4 reports the DOI plot in combination with the Luis-Kanamori (LFK) index, which
has higher sensitivity and power than a funnel plot (Mboua et al., 2020; Teshome et al., 2020).
An LFK index scores of ±1, between ±1 and ±2, or ±2 indicating ‘no asymmetry’, ‘minor
asymmetry’, and ‘major asymmetry’ respectively, and hence the LFK index of 2.1 represents
major asymmetry. Therefore, the presence of publication bias is likely.
4. DISCUSSION
4.1 Comparison with Prior Meta-analyses
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The meta-analysis of mental health one year into the COVID-19 epidemic in China
revealed several findings that are worth comparing with prior meta-analyses on the same
topic. See Table 5 for a summary of the comparison.
Unlike prior meta-analyses, most of which searched the literature before May 2020,
our meta-analysis covered a whole year of COVID-19 to yield stronger evidence. Our meta-
analysis from a systematic review comprises 171 independent samples with 630,244
participants from 131 studies, much larger than the prior meta-analyses on China’s
population that included 7–50 studies with 2123 to 62,382 participants (Bareeqa et al., 2020;
Krishnamoorthy et al., 2020; Pappa, 2020; Ren et al., 2020a; Salari et al., 2020b). The
comparison reveals that our pooled prevalence rates largely fall between the findings of
previous meta-analyses, suggesting our larger data is consistent yet fine-tunes them. For
example, we reported a higher prevalence of anxiety for the general population and HCWs
(24%) than Bareeqa et al. (2020) (22%) and Pappa et al. (2020) (23%), but lower than
Krishnamoorthy et al. 2020 (26%) and Ren et al. 2020 (25%). Similarly, we reported a higher
prevalence of anxiety for frontline HCWs (28%) than Bareeqa et al. (2020) (24%) and a
lower prevalence of depression (25%) for the general population and HCWs than the
prevalent rates of 26% - 28% in Ren et al. 2020, Krishnamoorthy et al. 2020, and Bareeqa et
al. 2020. All these differences between our prevalence rates and the prior reports (Bareeqa et
al., 2020; Krishnamoorthy et al., 2020; Pappa, 2020; Ren et al., 2020a) are statistically
significant due to the large sample size involved, and hence we significantly update the
cumulative evidence on mental health prevalence rates in COVID-19. Our findings also
suggest a need to update meta-analyses continuously to provide more accurate estimates of
the prevalence of mental illness while COVID-19 is ongoing.
Our systematic review over a year of the COVID-19 crisis allows us to identify all the
major mental health outcomes studied (anxiety, depression, insomnia, GPS, distress, and
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16
PTSD). In particular, GPS has never been included in any prior meta-analysis. Moreover,
prior meta-analyses examined the prevalence rates of mental health disorders based on one
level of the severity of symptoms (i.e., above mild), and we included articles that reported the
prevalence at varying levels of severity of symptoms.
4.2 Meta-regression Findings
Thanks to the large number of samples in China over a year of the COVID-19 crisis,
we were able to conduct meta-regression to account for the influence of multiple predictors at
the same time to enable better prediction on the prevalence of each mental health disorder.
The accumulative evidence shows that several predictors are significantly associated with
prevalence rates of mental issues in China during COVID-19, including the severity and type
of mental issues, population, sampling location, and study quality.
The severity of mental symptoms, which has been unaccounted for in prior meta-
analyses, was found to contribute greatly to the heterogeneity of prevalence rates, hence
individual mental health papers need to pay special attention to the severity with clarity.
Otherwise, researchers and practitioners might mix the severity of severe, moderate, and mild
mental illness. Since prior meta-analyses largely examined the prevalence rates of mild
mental health disorders, yet psychiatrists care not only the mild symptoms, and the significant
differences revealed by this study call for more meta-analyses on varying levels of severity to
provide evidence for practitioners relevant to their concerns.
Among the six types of mental health issues examined, distress and insomnia had the
highest prevalence rates among all three populations. Our findings suggest that practitioners
need to be aware and pay more attention to distress and insomnia under the COVID-19
pandemic. Moreover, given that more than two-thirds of existing empirical studies focused
on anxiety and depression, we call out for future research to focus on mental distress and
insomnia.
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17
Frontline HCWs suffered more than general HCWs and the general population across
all six types of mental issues. It is also worth noting the general HCWs did not significantly
differ from general populations across any mental issues. Hence, our evidence suggests that
policymakers and healthcare organizations need to further prioritize frontline HCWs the most
in this ongoing pandemic.
Past mental health research has reported inconsistent results on the relationship
between individuals’ mental issues and their locations. Some studies reported that mental
issues increase along with the distance to the epicenter in the COVID-19 pandemic, known as
“typhoon eye effect” (Tang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020d; Zhang et al.). However, other
findings have demonstrated an opposite effect, where mental issues decrease as the distance
to the epicenter increases, known as the “ripple effect” (Huang et al., 2020b; Zhang et al.,
2020l). Our accumulative evidence shows that people in the epicenter of China in Wuhan
suffered less mental issues than those outside of Wuhan, lending support to the typhoon eye
effect. This finding suggests future research to differentiate, report, and possibly model
sampling locations based on the epicenter of a pandemic to enable better geographical
identification of mental issues (Yáñez, 2020; Zhang et al., 2020e; Zhang et al., 2020g).
Our findings that the samples in papers with higher quality tend to find higher
prevalent rates of mental issues suggest study quality may matter. Particularly, future meta-
analysis may pay attention to the representativeness of sampling, the response rate, etc., to
better account for the heterogeneity in the pooled prevalence rates.
As the COVID-19 epidemic evolves, we expected the mental issues may change over
time. However, the evidence of meta-regression using time as a predictor failed to reveal
significant effect, even though the COVID crisis has evolved to varying degrees for more
than a year in countries such as China. A potential reason might be the development of
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18
COVID-19 in various parts of China happened at varying paces, and more refined studies are
needed to uncover the change of prevalence rates effect over time.
4.3 A Mental Health Research Agenda during Covid-19
Our systemic review and meta-analysis allowed us to observe several widespread
problems in the individual papers that impede the accumulation of evidence. We offer a few
concrete suggestions on research focus and reporting for future mental health studies for
authors, editors, and reviewers in a table for easy reference (Table 6) to improve the quality
of such studies and to facilitate evidence accumulation in future meta-analyses.
4.4 Study Limitations
This meta-analysis has a few limitations. First, the validity of our findings rests upon
the quality and reporting of the original studies. As discussed before, individual mental health
papers varied in their usage of instruments, cutoff scores, the use of cutoff scores to define
mental issues, and the reporting standards. For example, the overall prevalence refers to
“above the cutoff of mild” in some papers yet “above the cutoff of moderate” in other papers.
Worse, many papers report the overall prevalence without specifying which/how cutoff
scores are used. While we paid extra attention to the severity, the cutoff points, and the ways
in which individual articles used this information, the multitude of varying practices
contributes to additional noise and variance in the analysis. Second, since we included studies
in English, which may result in some biases. Third, 96.2% of studies included in this meta-
analysis were cross-sectional surveys, and we call for more cohort studies to examine the
effect of time. Finally, we only focus on studies that collected data in China, and we call for
future meta-analyses in other countries or regions as the COVID-19 crisis continues in most
parts of the world.
4.5 Conclusion
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19
Since the COVID-19 epidemic started in November 2019, hundreds of studies have
documented the mental health of major populations by the key mental outcomes and varying
levels of severity. This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized the evidence on the
prevalence rates of mental health disorders in China over one year of the COVID-19
epidemic. The meta-regression results provide evidence that future research should pay
attention to mental distress and insomnia, especially given the popularity of anxiety and
depression in the literature to date. Moreover, we revealed a number of issues in the
individual papers published on mental health during the COVID-19 crisis, and the high
heterogeneity among studies calls for more standard reporting of future research not only
during COVID-19 but also generally to better facilitate the synthesis of evidence to enable
evidence-based research and practice.
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Competing interest statement
All authors have completed the Unified Competing Interest form and declare: no support
from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any
organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years,
no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
Credit author statement
XC: Investigation, Data curation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing, Project administration. JC: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Formal
analysis, Investigation, Resources, Data curation, Visualization, Writing – original draft,
Writing – review & editing, Supervision. MZ, RC, RD, ZD, YY, BC, LT: Investigation
(Data). RZ, WC, PL: Investigation. SZ: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation,
Formal analysis, Investigation, Data curation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
editing, Supervision. XC, JC, and SZ co-lead this project. All authors were involved in
approving the manuscript. The corresponding author attests that all listed authors meet
authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted.
Transparency declaration
The lead author* affirms that this manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account
of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and
that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been
explained.
Ethical approval
Not applicable
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Funding sources/sponsors
Not applicable
Patient and public involvement
No patient or public was involved in a systematic review and meta-analysis
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Table 1. Characteristics of the studies on mental health in China in a year of
COVID-19 epidemic
Characteristics Total number of
studies/samples Percent Level of analysis
Overall 131 100 Article
Population Sample
Frontline HCWs 47 27.5
General HCWs 46 26.9
General population 78 45.6
Outcome Prevalence
Anxiety 127 35.5
Depression 128 35.8
Distress 9 2.5
General psychological symptoms 7 2.0
Insomnia 57 15.9
PTSD 30 8.4
Severity Prevalence
Above mild 85 23.7
Above moderate 166 46.4
Above severe 107 29.9
Sampling location Article
Wuhan 38 22.2
Non-Wuhan 123 77.8
Sampling date Article
January 2020 9 6.9
February 2020 85 64.9
March 2020 23 17.6
April 2020 8 6.1
May 2020 2 1.5
June 2020 2 1.5
July 2020 2 1.5
Design
Article
Cross-sectional 126 96.2
Cohort 5 3.8
Publication status
Article
Preprint 10 7.6
Accepted 1 0.8
Published 120 91.6
Quality Article
Good 100 73.3
Medium 31 23.7
Median Range
Number of participants 709 30 - 123,768 Article
Female portion 69% 12% - 100% Article
Response rate 85% 14% - 100% Article
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Table 2. The pooled prevalence rates of mental health disorders by subgroups of population, outcome, and severity
First-level
subgroup
Second-level
subgroup
Number of
samples (K) Percent Sample
size (N)
Prevalence
(%) 95%CI I2 (%) P
value
Overall 171* 630,244 14 13 - 15 99.9 0.00
Population
Frontline HCWs 47 27.5 65,477 17 14 - 20 99.6 0.00
General HCWs 46 26.9 71,341 14 11 - 17 99.7 0.00
General
population 78 45.6 493,426 12 10 - 14 99.9 0.00
Outcome#
Anxiety 127 60.7 517,417 11 9 - 13 99.8 0.00
Depression 128 61.1 444,008 13 11 - 16 99.8 0.00
Distress 9 4.3 68,820 20 8 - 36 99.9 0.00
GPS 7 3.3 35,966 13 3 -27 99.9 0.00
Insomnia 57 27.2 141,337 19 15 - 24 99.7 0.00
PTSD 30 14.3 31,850 20 12 - 29 99.7 0.00
Severity#
Above mild 85 40.6 100,287 27 24 - 30 99.3 0.00
Above moderate 166 79.3 515,676 18 16 - 20 99.6 0.00
Above severe 107 51.1 622,526 3 2 - 3 99.4 0.00
Note: CI = Confidence Interval; I2 statistic indicates the heterogeneity. GPS = general psychological symptoms.
* The total independent samples are larger than the number of studies because some studies included multiple samples.
# The total sample sizes are larger than the total sample of the 171 independent samples because one sample can assess multiple mental health
outcomes.
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Table 3. The results of meta-regression of mental health disorders during COVID-19
Variables Coefficient (CI, 95%) Std. Err. P-value
Outcome
Anxiety (reference)
Depression 0.03 (-0.06 to 0.11) 0.04 0.55
Distress 0.24* (0.01 to 0.47) 0.12 0.04
General psychological symptoms -0.01 (-0.27 to 0.26) 0.14 0.97
Insomnia 0.12* (0.01 to 0.23) 0.06 0.04
PTSD 0.10 (-0.05 to 0.24) 0.07 0.20
Severity
Above mild 0.20*** (0.11 to 0.30) 0.05 0.00
Above moderate (reference)
Above severe -0.49*** (-0.58 to 0.40) 0.05 0.00
Population
Frontline HCWs 0.14*** (0.05 to 0.23) 0.05 0.00
General HCWs (reference)
General population 0.03 (-0.07 to 0.13) 0.05 0.51
Publication Status
Preprint (reference)
Accepted -0.34 (-0.84 to 0.17) 0.26 0.19
Published -0.02 (-0.17 to 0.13) 0.08 0.80
Female proportion 0.09 (-0.19 to 0.37) 0.14 0.54
Date of data collection 0.00 (0.00 to 0.00) 0.00 0.64
Wuhan vs. Non-Wuhan sample -0.10*(-0.20 to 0.00) 0.05 0.04
Sample size 0.00 (0.00 to 0.00) 0.00 0.16
Quality 0.08* (0.01 to 0.15) 0.04 0.03
Constant 5.99 12.36 0.63
R2 0.41
Wald X2 (16) 252.05*** 0.00
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Table 4. The predicted prevalence rates of mental health disorders by populations, outcomes, and severity by the meta-analytical
regression model
Prevalence rate (95% CI)
Mental health disorders
above certain severity Frontline HCWs General HCWs General population Overall
Sample K=47, N=65,477 K=46, N=71, 341 K=78, N= 493,426 K=171, N=630,244
Mild anxiety 28% (23% - 33%) 22% (17% - 26%) 23% (19% - 28%) 24% (20% - 28%)
Moderate anxiety 19% (15% - 23%) 14% (11% - 17%) 15% (12% - 19%) 16% (13% - 19%)
Severe anxiety 4% (2% - 6%) 2% (1% - 3%) 2% (1% - 4%) 3% (2% - 4%)
Mild depression 29% (24% - 34%) 23% (19% - 27%) 24% (20% - 29%) 25% (21% - 29%)
Moderate depression 20% (17% - 24%) 15% (12% - 18%) 16% (13% - 20%) 17% (14% - 20%)
Severe depression 5% (3% - 7%) 2% (1% - 4%) 3% (1% - 5%) 3% (2% - 5%)
Mild distress 39% (27% - 51%) 32% (22% - 44%) 34% (23% - 46%) 35% (24% - 47%)
Moderate distress 29% (19% - 41%) 23% (14% - 34%) 25% (15% - 35%) 26% (16% - 36%)
Severe distress 10% (4% - 19%) 6% (2% - 13%) 7% (2% - 15%) 8% (3% - 15%)
Mild GPS 28% (16% - 41%) 21% (11% - 34%) 23% (12% - 36%) 24% (13% - 36%)
Moderate GPS 19% (10% - 30%) 14% (6% - 24%) 15% (7% - 26%) 16% (8% - 26%)
Severe GPS 4% (0% - 11%) 2% (0% - 7%) 2% (0% - 8%) 3% (0% - 9%)
Mild insomnia 33% (27% - 39%) 27% (21% - 33%) 28% (23% - 34%) 29% (24% - 35%)
Moderate insomnia 24% (19% - 29%) 18% (14% - 23%) 20% (15% - 24%) 20% (17% - 25%)
Severe insomnia 7% (4% - 10%) 4% (2% - 7%) 4% (2% - 7%) 5% (3% - 8%)
Mild PTSD 32% (25% - 40%) 26% (19% - 33%) 27% (20% - 35%) 28% (22% - 35%)
Moderate PTSD 23% (17% - 29%) 17% (12% - 23%) 19% (14% - 24%) 20% (15% - 25%)
Severe PTSD 6% (3% - 11%) 3% (1% - 7%) 4% (1% - 8%) 5% (2% - 8%)
Note: CI = Confidence Interval; GPS = general psychological symptoms.
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Table 5. Comparisons with prior meta-analyses of similar topic
Note: We include the existing meta-analyses that either target populations in China or whose included studies are mostly based in China (>90%).
All prevalence rates in this table are reported by the cutoff of mild and above. HCWs = Healthcare workers.
* K = Total number of studies on one outcome, which is smaller than total number of studies in a meta-analysis.
N= Total sample size on one outcome, which is smaller than total sample size in a meta-analysis
Author & year Last search
date
Number of
articles
(K*)
Total
sample
size (N*)
Population
Prevalence rate
Anxiety Depression Distress GPS Insomnia PTSD
Pappa et al. 2020 April 17 13 33,062 General HCWs 23% (K=12) 23% (K=10) 34%
(K=5)
Ren et al. 2020 April 20 12 27,475 General population
& HCWs 25% 28%
Krishnamoorthy
et al. 2020 April 21 50 171,571 General population
& HCWs 26% (K=31) 26% (K=28) 34% (K
=7) 30%
(K=5)
27%
(K=7)
Bareeqa et al.
2020
April 30 19
62,382 General population
& HCWs
22% (K=17,
N=57311)
27% (K=19,
N= 49656)
48% (K=8,
N =18439)
10,267 Frontline HCWs 24% (K=8,
N= 10267)
32% (K=8, N=
10267)
Salari et al. 2020 June 24 7
2,123 Frontline HCWs -
Doctor 42%
3,745 Frontline HCWs -
Nurse 35%
This meta-
analysis Nov. 16
47 65,477 Frontline HCWs 28% 29% 39% 28% 33% 32%
47 71, 341 General HCWs 22% 23% 32% 21% 27% 26%
78 493,426 General
population 23% 24% 34% 23% 28% 27%
171 630,244 Total population 24% 25% 35% 24% 29% 28%
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Table 6. A list of recommendations for mental health research papers
Guides for future research and reporting
Outcome and
instrument
1) Study health outcomes that have higher prevalence rates, e.g., distress and
insomnia
2) Use validated instruments
Severity of the
symptoms
3)
Use and report more levels of severity of symptoms and the cutoff points
used
4) Specify the meaning of overall prevalence, whether above mild or above
moderate
5) Specify the cutoff values used with the reasons/references
Characteristics of
the samples
6) Report sampling locations more precisely – not just the country, but the
region or the distance from epicenter if possible
7) Report the sampling dates
8) Report the age/gender of the participants
Population 9) Separate and focus on frontline line HCWs vs. HCWs
Study design 10) More future research using cohort designs
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Figure 1. The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) flow diagram
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Figure 2a. A forest plot of the pooled prevalence by outcomes
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Figure 2b. A forest plot of the pooled prevalence by outcome levels
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Figure 2c. A forest plot of the pooled prevalence by population
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Figure 3. The predicted prevalence rates of mental health disorders by populations, outcomes, and severity by the meta-analytical
regression model
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Figure 4. The DOI plot and the Luis Furuya–Kanamori (LFK) index over ±2 indicates ‘major asymmetry’ in publication bias among the studies
published to date.
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