Reducing uncertainties of climate projections on solar energy resources in Brazil

Abstract The share of solar energy in Brazil's electrical grid has rapidly increased, reducing GHG emissions and diversifying energy sources for greater energy security. This study is the first to combine satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate Taylor's skill of CMIP6 models in replicating spatial and seasonal patterns of surface solar irradiance (SSR) in Brazil. We used an ensemble with the highest-skill CMIP6 models to assess the climate change factor (CCF) on solar energy up to 2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. For most of the Brazilian territory, CCF evidences a robust signal that the annual average SSR will increase by 2% to 8% from the next decade to 2100. An exception occurs in the South of Brazil, where the annual CCF decreases by around -3%. PV yield is predicted to steadily increase in five metropolitan regions until 2100, highlighting the need for public policies to support PV distributed generation as a suitable resource to replace fossil fuels and meet the growing energy future demand in urban areas.