Annual Cycle Dampening and the Decrease Predictability of Water Level Fluctuations in a Dam-Regulated Neotropical Floodplain

The flood pulse concept refers to seasonal variations in river water level and is the driving force in river-floodplain systems that ‘responsible for the existence, productivity and interactions’ of these system’s biota. This seasonal variation is inherent to river-floodplain systems and establishes a natural pattern of these ecosystems that has frequently been observed in nature. One particular river-floodplain system of interest is the Upper Parana River and its floodplain, whose upstream contains a reservoir cascade that caused profound alterations on its flooding regime by having diminished flood magnitude, but increased its frequency. In this study, I sought to explore the flood pulse condition in the Upper Paraná River Floodplain by using a set of state-of-the-art spectral and non-linear analyses and a time series of water level fluctuations (1968-2017) from this system. I divided the data into four periods: i) natural regime period, ii) transitional period, iii) dam cascade period, and iv) Primavera’s dam period. Spectral analysis demonstrated a decrease in the annual cycle amplitude, reflected in its power spectrum, which means a weakening in the difference between flood and drought events. Additionally, nonlinear dynamical analysis revealed a less deterministic and predicable behavior leading to more erratic fluctuations jeopardizing the temporal heterogeneity of that system.