Simulated distributions of pumice rafts in Japan following eruptions at volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes

Abstract Huge pumice rafts produced by the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba submarine eruption arrived at many Japanese ports and islands, damaging fisheries and hindering marine traffic and trade. To investigate when and how much pumice might intersect trade routes and arrive at islands after future eruptions, we conducted particle tracking simulations of eruptions at major volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes near Japan (submarine volcano NNE of Iriomotejima, Izu-Tobu Volcanoes, Miyakejima, Bayonnaise Rocks, Nishinoshima, Kaitoku Seamount, and Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba) based on the velocity field from the ocean reanalysis dataset. We approximately reproduced the distribution of pumice arrivals recorded after the 1986 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption, demonstrating the effectiveness of the simulations. We report likely pumice raft arrivals and drifting durations for the investigated eruptive scenarios, which may aid future risk assessments for pumice arrivals.