Vicarious Experience of the US Presidential Election – The Case of European Voters

U.S. presidential elections often have international implications. How do these events affect public attitudes in uninvolved 'third-party' groups—i.e., general people in other countries? We explore this question by examining the effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome on civic attitudes and personal well-being, comparing the U.S. to nine European countries (N≈20,000 total). Exploiting a pre-post difference-in-differences survey design with representative samples, we find that the election outcome strongly shifted democratic satisfaction along winner (Trump) / loser (Harris) lines in the U.S. These patterns were mirrored in Europe, though attenuated. While justification for civic dishonesty remained stable globally, we also find parallel winner/loser effects on personal well-being (happiness, optimism), again in the same direction among Europeans and Americans. Treating the U.S. election as a ‘vicarious event’, our study reveals how major democratic outcomes generate psychological and political spillover effects beyond national borders, extending the winner-loser gap to international citizens.