Macroeconomic Drivers of Food Security in Türkiye: An Augmented ARDL Analysis

Macroeconomic Drivers of Food Security in Türkiye: An Augmented ARDL Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Macroeconomic Drivers of Food Security in Türkiye: An Augmented ARDL Analysis Ahmet Kadiroğlu, Hafsa Kadiroğlu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8093516/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this study, the effects of carbon emissions, GDP, inflation and capital formation on food production in Türkiye in the period 1987–2023 were examined. The starting point of the research is the necessity of ensuring Türkiye's food security under its strategic geopolitical location, its vulnerability to regional conflicts and environmental-economic pressures. In the research, the stationarity of the series was examined with unit root tests (ADF, PP and RALS-ADF), the long-term relationship was estimated with the Augmented ARDL approach and robustness checks were made with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. The results show that carbon emissions and capital formation have a statistically significant negative effect on food production, while GDP makes a positive contribution to food production. In addition, inflation limits food production through cost-push pressures. The findings demonstrate that strategies to combat climate change and increase investment efficiency should be integrated into food security policies, especially for Türkiye, a major food producer in a conflict-prone region. JEL Classification: F43, F63, Q18 Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Food Security Carbon Emission Economic Growth Capital Formation Türkiye Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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