Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing Accelerates Earth’s Energy Imbalance In Recent Decades

Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing Accelerates Earth’s Energy Imbalance In Recent Decades | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing Accelerates Earth’s Energy Imbalance In Recent Decades Tianle Yuan, hua song, Ryan Kramer, Lazaros Oreopoulos, Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades and continues to accelerate in recent years \cite{hansen_earths_2005,trenberth_perspective_2022,loeb_observational_2024}. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF\textsubscript{ACI}), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback \cite{bellouin_bounding_2020,raghuraman_forcing_2023, kramer_observational_2021}. Here we estimate ERF\textsubscript{ACI} using satellite observations and show it has been an important contributor to the EEI increase over the past two decades. The ERF\textsubscript{ACI} exhibits a significant warming trend of ${0.33 \pm 0.03 Wm^{-2}/decade}$ averaged over oceans between 60\textsuperscript{o}S and 60\textsuperscript{o}N. The warming trend of ERF\textsubscript{ACI} stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is similar to the combined instantaneous forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions estimated by radiative kernel calculations \cite{kramer_observational_2021}. Our results can close the gap between simulated and observed EEI trends while implying a weak total cloud feedback. Our findings have important implications for studying decadal changes, cloud feedback, and mitigation. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation aerosol-cloud interactions Earth Energy Imbalance aerosol emissions climate engineering Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7755051","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":529479105,"identity":"24fddd05-27d7-44e5-a840-84a1cf9d674e","order_by":0,"name":"Tianle Yuan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZiB+AGEyPiBKBw9ISwJUtwFxWhgQWtgkiNJiz8787EFCBUPihuNnj1UX1NTJM/AvPoZXLw8zm7lBwhmgljN5abdnHDts2CDxLI2AFgYzicQ2oJYDOWa3edgOMDZInDHG6ykeZvZvEon/gFrOvzEr5vlXZ0+EFh6gLQ1ALTdyzJh525gTG/h7DB/g1XKYp0wi4ZiE8cwbb4ylefsOJ7dJsCXi1cLef3ybxIcaG9m+8zmGn3m+1dn28x8+cACfFiiQcGyAMdkkEojQAAT2CCY/MXaMglEwCkbBSAIANYRFESQ+WcYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2187-3017","institution":"NASA Goddard Space Flight Center","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tianle","middleName":"","lastName":"Yuan","suffix":""},{"id":529479106,"identity":"18cde7c2-a050-45a8-ac46-7baf7bd27879","order_by":1,"name":"hua song","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2499-0566","institution":"SSAI","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"hua","middleName":"","lastName":"song","suffix":""},{"id":529479107,"identity":"c272f230-55cc-43e5-812e-1c07ce3ed985","order_by":2,"name":"Ryan Kramer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9377-0674","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ryan","middleName":"","lastName":"Kramer","suffix":""},{"id":529479108,"identity":"37989541-c761-4373-894b-abb98dd25062","order_by":3,"name":"Lazaros Oreopoulos","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6061-6905","institution":"NASA GSFC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lazaros","middleName":"","lastName":"Oreopoulos","suffix":""},{"id":529479109,"identity":"355ace31-cd11-468e-a139-0adad5400c86","order_by":4,"name":"Shiv Priyam Raghuraman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"UIUC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shiv","middleName":"Priyam","lastName":"Raghuraman","suffix":""},{"id":529479110,"identity":"26dfe988-27b0-4f76-bb3f-95ab60eb6da4","order_by":5,"name":"Robert Wood","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1401-3828","institution":"University of Washington","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Wood","suffix":""},{"id":529479111,"identity":"98e036db-dbfd-4a18-b935-4e67d3c62fcf","order_by":6,"name":"Mian Chin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Free","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mian","middleName":"","lastName":"Chin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-30 21:55:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93736194,"identity":"72a41e19-18fc-45c0-9839-391ace551730","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-17 03:38:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":9218301,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ERFduringtheCERESNature1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7755051/v1_covered_d59fa03c-cdd5-4957-9bb3-1543d79a482c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing Accelerates Earth’s Energy Imbalance In Recent Decades","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"aerosol-cloud interactions, Earth Energy Imbalance, aerosol emissions, climate engineering","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Earth's energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades and continues to accelerate in recent years \\cite{hansen_earths_2005,trenberth_perspective_2022,loeb_observational_2024}. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF\\textsubscript{ACI}), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback \\cite{bellouin_bounding_2020,raghuraman_forcing_2023, kramer_observational_2021}. Here we estimate ERF\\textsubscript{ACI} using satellite observations and show it has been an important contributor to the EEI increase over the past two decades. The ERF\\textsubscript{ACI} exhibits a significant warming trend of ${0.33 \\pm 0.03 Wm^{-2}/decade}$ averaged over oceans between 60\\textsuperscript{o}S and 60\\textsuperscript{o}N. The warming trend of ERF\\textsubscript{ACI} stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is similar to the combined instantaneous forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions estimated by radiative kernel calculations \\cite{kramer_observational_2021}. Our results can close the gap between simulated and observed EEI trends while implying a weak total cloud feedback. Our findings have important implications for studying decadal changes, cloud feedback, and mitigation.","manuscriptTitle":"Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing Accelerates Earth’s Energy Imbalance In Recent Decades","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-17 03:29:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7755051/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ed4f00b2-37b2-4944-99b1-5c952d885eca","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 17th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":56278314,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric chemistry"},{"id":56278315,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-17T03:29:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-17 03:29:39","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7755051","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7755051","identity":"rs-7755051","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}