Variations in Land-Atmosphere Coupling during Drought-Heatwave events

Variations in Land-Atmosphere Coupling during Drought-Heatwave events | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Variations in Land-Atmosphere Coupling during Drought-Heatwave events Donghyuck Yoon, Jan-Huey Chen, Hsin Hsu, Kirsten Findell This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Droughts and heatwaves are linked through different land-atmosphere coupling pathways. While high temperatures and depleted soil moisture (SM) reserves are characteristic of all extreme compound drought-heatwave events, the behavior of latent heat flux (LHF) can reveal the dominant forcing mechanism driving these events. Our quantitative framework for grid-cell-by-grid-cell analysis shows that most cases across six severe compound drought-heatwave cases since 2000 exhibit spatially inhomogeneous land-atmosphere coupling, which are associated with the partitioning of surface fluxes. Atmospherically-driven regimes are characterized by increased LHF following daily maximum temperature anomalies, while regimes driven from the land surface show LHF deficits following SM anomalies. In addition, we demonstrate mechanistic skill with a medium-range forecast model in reproducing two events with contrasting coupling behaviors, with the more water-limited event exhibiting longer lead-time predictability. These results highlight the limitations of using domain-average coupling to characterize extremes, and the potential for improved forecast accuracy for compound drought-heatwave events. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology compound drought-heatwave land-atmosphere coupling SHiELD Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6413463","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":450090980,"identity":"3de7b5ac-b75c-42c6-aaca-38e693bc91ee","order_by":0,"name":"Donghyuck Yoon","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAxCRwMBQz8bffPABkM3DR6QWgwR+iWPJIA4PG1FagFSCZEOOmQSISVCLOfvxxx8e/PmTZ3DgWFrl1xw7GTYG5oePbuDRYtkDNDyxzaDY4HDzsduy25KBDmMzNs7B57ADOWwMiQ0GjBuAttyW3MYM1MLDJo1Xy/nnjz8k/AFpyTErltxWT4SWGwkGEglsBokzgd5n/LjtMGEtljPegPxibAwKZGnGbcd52JgJ+MWcP/3xxx9/5ORAUfnx57Zqe3725oeP8WlBAcw8YJJY5SDA+IMU1aNgFIyCUTBiAAA4SkqKTFkQ/wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7241-0805","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Donghyuck","middleName":"","lastName":"Yoon","suffix":""},{"id":450090981,"identity":"f71b4ce3-44da-4911-a9e7-0486e9169149","order_by":1,"name":"Jan-Huey Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jan-Huey","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":450090982,"identity":"67c3d6fb-1e6b-4f1f-bb01-28fe4b1c143c","order_by":2,"name":"Hsin Hsu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1489-6632","institution":"Princeton","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hsin","middleName":"","lastName":"Hsu","suffix":""},{"id":450090983,"identity":"2168144f-2022-4f97-ae12-e7d446f210f3","order_by":3,"name":"Kirsten Findell","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1207-1637","institution":"Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kirsten","middleName":"","lastName":"Findell","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-09 15:51:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02977-9","type":"published","date":"2026-01-05T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99588304,"identity":"bd5f8572-db25-4322-b7d7-3c11bc2f1843","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-06 08:12:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1322311,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptYoonetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6413463/v1_covered_122146d6-67fb-4f69-81b3-9f2bb06d155a.pdf"},{"id":83002469,"identity":"222297d7-3167-4485-a0b3-7223b6915247","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-19 01:55:35","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":881868,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6413463/v1/91f843f775e9cc9ad3fe8c55.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Variations in Land-Atmosphere Coupling during Drought-Heatwave events","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"compound drought-heatwave, land-atmosphere coupling, SHiELD","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Droughts and heatwaves are linked through different land-atmosphere coupling pathways. While high temperatures and depleted soil moisture (SM) reserves are characteristic of all extreme compound drought-heatwave events, the behavior of latent heat flux (LHF) can reveal the dominant forcing mechanism driving these events. Our quantitative framework for grid-cell-by-grid-cell analysis shows that most cases across six severe compound drought-heatwave cases since 2000 exhibit spatially inhomogeneous land-atmosphere coupling, which are associated with the partitioning of surface fluxes. Atmospherically-driven regimes are characterized by increased LHF following daily maximum temperature anomalies, while regimes driven from the land surface show LHF deficits following SM anomalies. In addition, we demonstrate mechanistic skill with a medium-range forecast model in reproducing two events with contrasting coupling behaviors, with the more water-limited event exhibiting longer lead-time predictability. These results highlight the limitations of using domain-average coupling to characterize extremes, and the potential for improved forecast accuracy for compound drought-heatwave events.","manuscriptTitle":"Variations in Land-Atmosphere Coupling during Drought-Heatwave events","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-19 01:55:30","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413463/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commsenv","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Earth and Environment](https://www.nature.com/commsenv/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Communications Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"528948ab-67db-49bb-9494-c9bd1652a7e5","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 19th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":47895424,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":47895425,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics"},{"id":47895426,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-06T08:12:00+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6413463","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02977-9","journal":{"identity":"communications-earth-and-environment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Communications Earth \u0026 Environment"},"publishedOn":"2026-01-05 05:00:00","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 5th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-19 01:55:30","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02977-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02977-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6413463","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6413463","identity":"rs-6413463","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}