A new SEIRPV mathematical model to study the evolution of Covid-19 in Morocco

Abstract A new pandemic was discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, this disease belongs to the coronavirus family and has spread rapidly to all countries in the world. As of March 05, more than 1161586 cases have been detected in Morocco, resulting in 16015 deaths with more than 1142892 recoveries. The objective of this paper is to propose a general fractional order SEIRPV model to study the dynamic behavior of COVID-19, and emphasizes the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and spread of this disease. This paper also allows us to study the effect of confinement of the susceptible population. Using some mathematical models and conditions, we can conclude that if R0 ≤ 1, the disease-free equilibrium point is unique and locally asymptotically stable as well as globally stable. When R0 > 1, the pandemic equilibrium point is also unique. In addition, the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free and pandemic equilibrium points exists, as well as the global stability. The theoretical results are validated through some numerical simulations to illustrate the evolution of the virus in Morocco using a Matlab program.