Early assessment of epidemiological trends associated with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Germany

ABSTRACT Growing evidence on higher transmissibility of novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is raising alarm in many countries. We provide near-time estimates of the statistical association between reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) and epidemiological indicators at the local area level in Germany. Our findings indicate that the 7-day incidence rates in regions with confirmed VOC cases increased by up to 35%, on average, after VOC reporting compared to regions without confirmed cases by February 4. The hospitalization rate for COVID-19 patients in intensive care increased by up to 40%, but only for regions with most reported VOC cases. Both indicators further show a clear upward trend in regions with reported VOC cases vis-à-vis those without cases.