On predicting an NBA game outcome from half-time statistics

On predicting an NBA game outcome from half-time statistics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article On predicting an NBA game outcome from half-time statistics Christos Adam, Pavlos Pantatosakis, Michail Tsagris This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4772567/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Predicting the outcome of an NBA game is a major concern for betting companies and individuals who are willing to bet. We attack this task by employing various advanced machine learning algorithms and techniques, utilizing simple half-time statistics from both teams. Data collected from 3 seasons, from 2020/21 up to 2022/23 were used to assess the predictive performance of the algorithms at two axes. For each season separately, apply the algorithms and estimate the outcomes of the games of the same season and secondly, apply the algorithms in one season and estimate the outcomes of the games in the next season. The results showed high levels of accuracy as measured by the area under the curve. The analysis was repeated after performing variable selection using a non-linear algorithm that selected the most important half-time statistics, while retaining the predictive performance at high levels of accuracy. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning NBA half-time statistics game outcome machine learning Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4772567","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":329464201,"identity":"bcdfe86a-524d-4c96-83c1-00e7ae5acf1e","order_by":0,"name":"Christos Adam","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Crete","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christos","middleName":"","lastName":"Adam","suffix":""},{"id":329464202,"identity":"6300759d-9e73-49b0-99bf-ad0e16863a87","order_by":1,"name":"Pavlos Pantatosakis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Crete","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pavlos","middleName":"","lastName":"Pantatosakis","suffix":""},{"id":329464402,"identity":"443f5ae3-64fc-43be-b7d6-f6911bc1fbf2","order_by":2,"name":"Michail Tsagris","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAs0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCQZ+4hWzQbVINpCohYHB4ACxOnTntz/8+HWPhb3xjeSDHxh+3SOsxewYj7G0zDOJxG030pIlGPuKidLCIC1xQCLB7EaOGQNjTwIxWtgf/wZqsTeeQbwWBjPJDwckGDdIALUw/CBKS46ZNcMBicQZZ54lSyQ2EKPl8PHHN38cqLPnbweG2Ic/RGgBAWYeGCuxjTgdDIw/4Mw/RGoZBaNgFIyCEQUAV7g4lTAsFqsAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Crete","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michail","middleName":"","lastName":"Tsagris","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-20 10:06:55","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4772567/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4772567/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":60867117,"identity":"ba53d019-9556-4abc-af83-38c57fddbaf0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-23 03:42:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":608873,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NBAgameprediction.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4772567/v1_covered_bcec0ae4-eb58-4e55-8f58-c61c1246c53c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eOn predicting an NBA game outcome from half-time statistics\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"University of Crete","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"NBA, half-time statistics, game outcome, machine learning","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4772567/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4772567/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003ePredicting the outcome of an NBA game is a major concern for betting companies and individuals who are willing to bet. 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