Intuitive and Inaccurate Predictions in the Relationship Between Overconfidence, Positive Feedback, and Performance

Overconfidence could be adaptive if it bolstered motivation, self-efficacy, and/or persistence. This study attempted to experimentally manipulate overconfidence via positive feedback to search for a relationship between overconfidence and performance or persistence on a Raven’s Progressive Matrices (RPM) task. We sought potential mediators of these relationships by measuring participants’ self-reported levels of self-efficacy, anxiety, and self-esteem prior to completing the RPM task. We found that positive feedback significantly enhanced performance, but that it did not induce overconfidence or affect self-efficacy, self-esteem, or anxiety. Our findings indicate that the benefits of positive feedback are not mediated by overconfidence. We also explored the accuracy of participants’ predictions of how positive feedback would impact performance, self-efficacy, anxiety, and self-esteem. Participants accurately predicted that positive feedback could increase performance. Although our manipulation had weak effects on these measures, participants also predicted that positive feedback would increase self-efficacy and self-esteem and decrease anxiety.