Analyzing Factors Affecting Age at First Birth among Married Women in Somalia: A Bayesian Shared Frailty Modeling Approach using SDHS 2020

Analyzing Factors Affecting Age at First Birth among Married Women in Somalia: A Bayesian Shared Frailty Modeling Approach using SDHS 2020 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analyzing Factors Affecting Age at First Birth among Married Women in Somalia: A Bayesian Shared Frailty Modeling Approach using SDHS 2020 Abdisalan Ahmed Osman, Abdisalam Amin Esse, Abdisalam Hassan Muse This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The birth of the first child primarily influences fertility, with young mothers accounting for one in ten childbirths worldwide. Somalia faces challenges in achieving Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 3 on maternal and child health, owing to its fragmented health system and high maternal mortality rates. The study investigates factors affecting the age at first birth among married women in Somalia, including sociodemographic, economic, and health-related factors. It uses shared frailty modeling and evaluates the Bayesian shared frailty model's performance in capturing variation in birth timing. The Bayesian shared frailty model was applied to identify factors influencing the time to first birth among married women in Somalia. Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic models were compared, and based on their LOOIC and WAIC values, the log-normal model was found to be the most appropriate, as it had the lowest values, indicating a better fit. Consequently, the Bayesian approach and log-logistic AFT model analysis revealed that Region, Residence, and Husband's desire for children are statistically significant factors for married women’s survival time to first birth in Somalia. The study recommends promoting early marriage, preventing underage marriages, expanding education access, addressing maternal health disparities, and strengthening family planning programs for Somali women's reproductive health, especially in rural and nomadic areas. Age at first birth Maternal health Prior Somalia SDHS 2020 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5336388","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":371073673,"identity":"ce36be20-43a2-4f94-b065-b23f063aae2f","order_by":0,"name":"Abdisalan Ahmed Osman","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQaDAwwMFkAWDxBVAGlm5gZitEhAtZwBaWEkrIUBroW3DSREQAv/7OaNB3/USMibs589uuHtvNpo/naglh8V23BbcudYwWGeYxKGO3vy0m7O3XY8d8ZhxgbGnjO3cVtzI8fgMAObBOOGAzlmt3m3HcttAGphZmzDrUUeqOXgj38S9hvOvwFqmXMsdz4hLQZALQd42yQSN9wA2dJQk7uBkBZDkF94+ySSN9x4Y3ZzzrEDuRuBWg7i84vc7ebNH398s7HdcD7H7MabmrrceecPH3zwowKP99HAYTB5gGj1QFBHiuJRMApGwSgYIQAAIoVlSOlctyEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Jigjiga University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdisalan","middleName":"Ahmed","lastName":"Osman","suffix":""},{"id":371073674,"identity":"4130a197-028b-4e86-b8ee-fbc23c2e1ad0","order_by":1,"name":"Abdisalam Amin Esse","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Amoud University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdisalam","middleName":"Amin","lastName":"Esse","suffix":""},{"id":371073678,"identity":"581bd46a-7ac5-485a-94a9-abf4b2f6f219","order_by":2,"name":"Abdisalam Hassan Muse","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Amoud University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdisalam","middleName":"Hassan","lastName":"Muse","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-10-26 08:23:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":69230123,"identity":"ee4c6b38-14b9-469f-ae37-0e505a53eb39","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-11-18 08:40:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":624901,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptAgeatfirstbirthinSomalia.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5336388/v1_covered_0f240536-1170-43a2-bdef-29fa714c3398.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Analyzing Factors Affecting Age at First Birth among Married Women in Somalia: A Bayesian Shared Frailty Modeling Approach using SDHS 2020","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Age at first birth, Maternal health, Prior, Somalia, SDHS 2020","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe birth of the first child primarily influences fertility, with young mothers accounting for one in ten childbirths worldwide. Somalia faces challenges in achieving Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 3 on maternal and child health, owing to its fragmented health system and high maternal mortality rates. The study investigates factors affecting the age at first birth among married women in Somalia, including sociodemographic, economic, and health-related factors. It uses shared frailty modeling and evaluates the Bayesian shared frailty model's performance in capturing variation in birth timing. The Bayesian shared frailty model was applied to identify factors influencing the time to first birth among married women in Somalia. Weibull, log-normal, and log-logistic models were compared, and based on their LOOIC and WAIC values, the log-normal model was found to be the most appropriate, as it had the lowest values, indicating a better fit. Consequently, the Bayesian approach and log-logistic AFT model analysis revealed that Region, Residence, and Husband's desire for children are statistically significant factors for married women\u0026rsquo;s survival time to first birth in Somalia. The study recommends promoting early marriage, preventing underage marriages, expanding education access, addressing maternal health disparities, and strengthening family planning programs for Somali women's reproductive health, especially in rural and nomadic areas.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Analyzing Factors Affecting Age at First Birth among Married Women in Somalia: A Bayesian Shared Frailty Modeling Approach using SDHS 2020","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-11-07 14:00:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5336388/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6d5a7651-56d2-49fc-91f8-2cb6a44e4db3","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 7th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-11-18T08:39:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-11-07 14:00:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5336388","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5336388","identity":"rs-5336388","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"7rjqhiLT3MXkJMwkYKINL","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}