The supply-demand dynamics of lithium resources and sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China

The supply-demand dynamics of lithium resources and sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The supply-demand dynamics of lithium resources and sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China Li Song, Weijing Wang, Hui Hua, Songyan Jiang, Xuewei Liu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8034271/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Lithium is a critical component for traction batteries and plays a key role in advancing vehicle electrification for low carbon transportation. Forecasting lithium supply-demand dynamics of electric vehicles is essential for developing sustainable utilization strategies. This study develops an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors by combining an SD-based model with dynamic MFA and scenario analysis methods. Using the model, this study simulates China’s lithium demand dynamics during 2025–2035 and the impact of various factors on the demand, as well as the potential in reducing the lithium supply-demand gap. The results show that China’s EV stocks and annual demand will grow significantly by 8.3 and 3.4 times during 2024–2035 under the baseline scenario. The expansion will drive a substantial rise in annual lithium demand, reaching 252 kt in 2035, a 4.7-fold increase from 2024. Cumulatively, lithium demand will represent 50–71% of China’s domestic lithium reserves by 2035, presenting a critical challenge in securing sufficient lithium supply. Moreover, a persistent supply-demand gap is anticipated, stabilizing at 110–120 kt/yr by 2035, underscoring China’s growing reliance on imported lithium resources. The study also reveals that strategic interventions can help mitigate this gap. Technology-driven scenarios, such as improving battery energy density and lifespan can reduce lithium demand by up to 18.9%, while enhancing recycling efforts could reduce lithium supply-demand gap by 39%. This study contributes by providing an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors and offering a scientific basis for developing sustainable lithium management strategies. lithium metal electric vehicle dynamic material flow analysis resource management Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SI.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8034271","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":547778764,"identity":"fe957976-cd8c-4bfb-b1a9-14e1a9909d87","order_by":0,"name":"Li Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing institute of tourism and hospitality","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Li","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":547778765,"identity":"8b4b5b28-81dc-4783-b731-ae6988867634","order_by":1,"name":"Weijing Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nanjing University of Information Science and 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China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"lithium metal, electric vehicle, dynamic material flow analysis, resource management","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8034271/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8034271/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLithium is a critical component for traction batteries and plays a key role in advancing vehicle electrification for low carbon transportation. Forecasting lithium supply-demand dynamics of electric vehicles is essential for developing sustainable utilization strategies. This study develops an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors by combining an SD-based model with dynamic MFA and scenario analysis methods. Using the model, this study simulates China\u0026rsquo;s lithium demand dynamics during 2025\u0026ndash;2035 and the impact of various factors on the demand, as well as the potential in reducing the lithium supply-demand gap. The results show that China\u0026rsquo;s EV stocks and annual demand will grow significantly by 8.3 and 3.4 times during 2024\u0026ndash;2035 under the baseline scenario. The expansion will drive a substantial rise in annual lithium demand, reaching 252 kt in 2035, a 4.7-fold increase from 2024. Cumulatively, lithium demand will represent 50\u0026ndash;71% of China\u0026rsquo;s domestic lithium reserves by 2035, presenting a critical challenge in securing sufficient lithium supply. Moreover, a persistent supply-demand gap is anticipated, stabilizing at 110\u0026ndash;120 kt/yr by 2035, underscoring China\u0026rsquo;s growing reliance on imported lithium resources. The study also reveals that strategic interventions can help mitigate this gap. Technology-driven scenarios, such as improving battery energy density and lifespan can reduce lithium demand by up to 18.9%, while enhancing recycling efforts could reduce lithium supply-demand gap by 39%. This study contributes by providing an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors and offering a scientific basis for developing sustainable lithium management strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The supply-demand dynamics of lithium resources and sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-27 05:13:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8034271/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"7d5d8441-4d5c-4a3f-b184-eb535f0f7971","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-27T00:54:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-27 05:13:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8034271","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8034271","identity":"rs-8034271","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}