Declines of peatland water table forces climate warming despite methane emission drawdown | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Declines of peatland water table forces climate warming despite methane emission drawdown Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Lei Ma, Gretchen Gettel, Christian Werner, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2839705/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Drainage and reduction in precipitation due to climate change have led to global declines in the water table (WT) of pristine peatlands, which have increased ecosystem releases of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and decreased emissions of methane (CH 4 ). However, the trade-offs in these changes on net greenhouse gas (GHG) balances of peatlands globally remains unknown. Using meta-analysis and bootstrapped upscaling approaches, we assessed the global effect of WT decline on net GHG balances in peatlands, considering both on- and off-site (e.g., biomass removal, hydrological export, ditch emission) ecosystem fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O. We found that drainage caused a significant increase in net emissions of CO 2 by 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.72–1.08) Pg CO 2 yr –1 and of N 2 O by 0.09 (0.05–0.12) Pg CO 2 -eq. yr –1 , while emissions of CH 4 decreased by 0.30 (0.13–0.48) Pg CO 2 -eq. yr –1 . The overall GHG balance significantly increased by 0.68 (0.43–0.94) Pg CO 2 -eq. yr –1 . Climate, land use, and time since drainage introduced variability, with the conversion of (sub)tropical peatlands to agriculture and forestry dominating net global increases in peatland emissions (105%, range: 63–147%). In contrast, forestry in boreal peatlands reduced global GHG emissions by –4% (–8~–1%). Conversion of temperate and boreal peatlands to agriculture and forestry land uses was climate neutral overall, as increases in CO 2 and N 2 O emissions were offset by reductions in CH 4 emissions. Drained (sub)tropical peatlands for agriculture and forestry are global GHG emission hotspots. Conserving pristine peatlands and restoring degraded peatlands are needed particularly in the (sub)tropics for climate change mitigation. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle Biological sciences/Biochemistry/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementarydataAonsiteGHGflux.xlsx Supplementary data_A_on-site GHG flux SupplementarydataBoffsiteGHGflux.xlsx Supplementary data_B_off-site GHG flux SupplementarydataCdrainedpeatlandareabyclimateandlanduse.xlsx Supplementary data_C_drained peatland area by climate and land-use SupplementarydataDditchfraction.xlsx Supplementary data_D_ditch fraction SupplementarydataEpeatextractionfraction.xlsx Supplementary data_E_peat extraction fraction SupplementarydataFgapfillingGPPReNEE.xlsx Supplementary data_F_gapfilling GPP Re NEE SupplementarydataGgapfillingCH4.xlsx Supplementary data_G_gapfilling CH4 SupplementarydataHgapfillingN2O.xlsx Supplementary data_H_gapfilling N2O Supplementaryfile.docx Extended Data Files Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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