Influence of climate change on vector born disease (Malaria) over India

Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, pose a significant global threat, and their intensity is greatly influenced by climatological factors. Tropical countries, like India, are particularly vulnerable to such diseases, making accurate estimation of malaria risk crucial. In this study, we utilized the well-known Vector-borne Disease Community Model, VECTRI, developed by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste. The model was implemented to estimate the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) of malaria. Future climatic prediction datasets, including CMIP 5, along with population data sets, were used as inputs for the analysis. The projections covered the period from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2029. The estimated EIR for the years 2020–2029 ranged from 90 to 100 bites per person per year. There was a noticeable decline in malaria risk over the coming decade. The months of August to November, during the post-monsoon period, were identified as highly prone to malaria transmission. Spatial analysis revealed that the east coast of India faced a higher vulnerability to malaria risk. The observed decline in malaria risk is a positive development, but it is essential to exercise caution, especially in areas with heavy rainfall. This research provides valuable insights for policy-makers, highlighting the need to implement future strategies to effectively mitigate malaria risk. By utilizing these findings, appropriate measures can be taken to combat the threat posed by malaria and protect public health.