The Impact of Population Aging on Youth Unemployment: From Consumption Perspective

The Impact of Population Aging on Youth Unemployment: From Consumption Perspective | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The Impact of Population Aging on Youth Unemployment: From Consumption Perspective Juan Luo, Nana Hu, Ying Liu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9229349/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Population aging and youth unemployment represent two paramount macroeconomic challenges globally, yet their intrinsic nexus remains largely underexplored. Drawing on an unbalanced panel dataset of 145 countries from 2005 to 2024, this study introduces a demand-side perspective to systematically investigate how macroeconomic consumption levels moderate the impact of aging on the youth unemployment rate. The findings reveal that population aging exerts a significant negative overall effect on youth unemployment, confirming an intergenerational "crowding-in effect" within the labor market—a demographic dividend particularly pronounced among young females. However, consumption levels act as a critical negative buffer. Specifically, as the consumption-to-GDP ratio rises, the marginal benefit of aging in mitigating youth unemployment gradually diminishes. Heterogeneity analyses further indicate that this buffering effect is especially salient in developing nations and economies with underdeveloped service sectors. Ultimately, this research uncovers the moderating boundary of consumption in the aging-employment dynamic for the first time, offering novel empirical insights for designing synergistic policies to stabilize employment and expand domestic demand across different developmental stages. Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Social science/Sociology Population aging Youth unemployment Crowding-in effect Consumption buffering effect Moderating boundary Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Code.docx incomeclassification.xlsx WDIpaneldata.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9229349","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":626081270,"identity":"e44b131a-3206-4a2d-bd0c-42d69e2fc738","order_by":0,"name":"Juan Luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai University of Engineering Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juan","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":626081271,"identity":"9aeffe41-540d-4809-8307-e28bdc90caab","order_by":1,"name":"Nana 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