Assessing climate change impacts for small-scale fisheries in the Gulf of California using Deep Learning

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A deep learning model projected significant declines and subsequent recovery for reef and benthic fish in the Gulf of California due to climate change, with temperature effects varying by depth.

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This paper assessed how future climate change could affect small-scale, multispecific fisheries in the Gulf of California, where species-specific catch data are limited and deterministic ecological models are constrained. The authors applied a deep learning “Mixture of Expert” forecasting approach under future climate change scenarios and used Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to evaluate feature importance, finding that reef and benthic fish were projected to decline in the 2050s–2060s with later recovery in the 2070s–2080s, alongside reef-fish economic losses estimated at $1.2 million before recovery. A key caveat is the data-poor context—insufficient biological information for traditional models—necessitating reliance on deep learning rather than deterministic species-level modeling. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

Small-scale, multispecific fisheries in the Gulf of California face significant challenges including limited species-specific catch data, uncertainty about climate change impacts, and insufficient biological information needed for traditional deterministic models. These knowledge gaps hamper efforts to forecast future conditions and develop appropriate management strategies accurately. The complexity of these multi-species fisheries, combined with data scarcity for many target species, creates substantial barriers to quantifying and addressing climate vulnerability. Deep learning approaches offer a promising alternative by leveraging available data to identify patterns and project trends despite these limitations, providing valuable insights for fisheries management in data-poor contexts. Here, we apply a Mixture of Expert, a deep learning forecasting models for small-scale, multi-specific fisheries in the Gulf of California under future climate change scenarios. Results show varied responses across marine habitats, with reef and benthic fish projected to experience substantial declines (-12.46% and -9.37%) during the 2050s-2060s, followed by recovery in the 2070s-2080s. Economic implications are significant, with reef fish facing projected losses of $1.2 million by the 2050s before recovering by the 2080s. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was applied to evaluate the importance of features for each predictive model, the analysis revealed the effects of the temperature in different depths for each fishery, and the sensitive analysis pointed to the magnitude of the effect. Our findings suggest that climate impacts will not be uniform across the Gulf, necessitating region-specific management approaches and highlighting the value of maintaining diverse fishing portfolios to enhance resilience against climate-driven changes.
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Abstract Small-scale, multispecific fisheries in the Gulf of California face significant challenges including limited species-specific catch data, uncertainty about climate change impacts, and insufficient biological information needed for traditional deterministic models. These knowledge gaps hamper efforts to forecast future conditions and develop appropriate management strategies accurately. The complexity of these multi-species fisheries, combined with data scarcity for many target species, creates substantial barriers to quantifying and addressing climate vulnerability. Deep learning approaches offer a promising alternative by leveraging available data to identify patterns and project trends despite these limitations, providing valuable insights for fisheries management in data-poor contexts. Here, we apply a Mixture of Expert, a deep learning forecasting models for small-scale, multi-specific fisheries in the Gulf of California under future climate change scenarios. Results show varied responses across marine habitats, with reef and benthic fish projected to experience substantial declines (-12.46% and -9.37%) during the 2050s-2060s, followed by recovery in the 2070s-2080s. Economic implications are significant, with reef fish facing projected losses of $1.2 million by the 2050s before recovering by the 2080s. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was applied to evaluate the importance of features for each predictive model, the analysis revealed the effects of the temperature in different depths for each fishery, and the sensitive analysis pointed to the magnitude of the effect. Our findings suggest that climate impacts will not be uniform across the Gulf, necessitating region-specific management approaches and highlighting the value of maintaining diverse fishing portfolios to enhance resilience against climate-driven changes. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.

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