Forecasting requisite physicians’ density through medical education acceleration strategy towards elimination of workforce deficit in nigeria (2021-2042)

Abstract Background: This paper assessed availability of physicians, supply and demand gap of medical workforce comparatively with the internationally established requisite minimum physicians’ density for Nigeria (2022-2042). It also evaluates the propensity of medical education programme and capability of the Nigerian medical schools to produce sufficient mint medical doctors for effective medical services to population. It also provides projection of estimates of government financing requirement for achieving the targeted number of physicians in the medium to long term. Methods: Ex-post ‘facto’ quantitative research design and method is employed in the study. Data sets obtained from the relevant Nigerian government’s organisations. Analytical techniques adopted include simple numerical analysis, descriptive statistics, moving average system, demographic estimation methods and projections of future budgetary resource allocation procedures. Main Finding / Results: Results show that there was a significant deficit in physicians’ density in Nigeria with average annual shortage of 31000. At this range, represents one doctor per 2591 persons as against one-doctor-to-1818 people and shortage of 33000 doctors. Second, the current student enrolment in the range of 3300 to 3600 requires a minimum of 2000300 percent increase in annual students’ enrolment in order to be recording reasonable annual out-turns. With the adoption of a flexible optimum enrolment policy, the result reveals there would be a downward decline in the range of 9%-to-5% in physicians’ shortages which is linked to increase of 250-312%. Thus, Nigeria will be able to produce enough medical doctors and injection to the pool to effectively eliminate physicians’ density deficit in next two decades. Therefore should be replaced with a flexible system. Nigeria would make about one trillion naira savings from medical tourism if Nigeria implements the medical education acceleration strategy as envisage in this paper. Nigeria needs to spend about an average of N313 million annually in next 20 years as against N360 million current spending on foreign medical care (tourism) and with such medical programme funding, Conclusion: This study provided evidence-based results indicating sub-optimal students’ enrolments and inadequate funding are the root cause of physicians’ density deficit in Nigeria and not necessarily the wage pricing medical labour force. Nigeria is under-producing doctors with about 15000-20000 currently working outside the country. It is illogical that Nigeria’s medical schools have continued to enrol fewer trainees despite a huge deficit of 33000 physicians which implies that about a minimum of 8000-to-10000 for the next two decades in order to clear the shortage or the country will continue to grapple with physicians’ deficit continuously.