From individual carbon inequality to equitable provincial mitigation effort-sharing in China

From individual carbon inequality to equitable provincial mitigation effort-sharing in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From individual carbon inequality to equitable provincial mitigation effort-sharing in China Shonali Pachauri, Yonglong Cheng, Xianchun Tan, Jarmo Kikstra, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7509875/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Provincial-level mitigation responsibilities in China typically focus on production-based targets, overlooking significant inequalities in individual carbon footprints (CFs). Here, we quantify individual consumption and investment CFs across Chinese provinces for 2017 and, based on a business-as-usual projection of provincial emissions and individual CF distribution, we develop a consumption-based effort-sharing framework for 2030. Our framework addresses carbon inequality by imposing an emission cap on high-CF individuals while guaranteeing minimum allowances for low emitters. Our analysis shows substantial CF disparities in 2017: the wealthiest 10% contributed 22% of emissions, while the poorest 50% accounted for only 29%. One way to meet China’s 2030 climate target is to cap individual CFs at a maximum of 11.2 tCO₂/yr. To meet decent living standards, CFs may increase for about 5% of the Chinese population, but this would only add 0.3% to total emissions. Conversely, the richest 30% of the population, whose emissions are primarily investment-driven (over 50%), would need to reduce emissions by 45% to comply with this cap. Some northern and northwestern provinces face greater mitigation challenges due to over 40% of their population exceeding the CF cap. Our findings underscore the importance of tracing and managing high-income investment-driven emissions for fair and effective climate policy in China. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryData1Individualleveldatabyincomegroupforeachprovince.xlsx Supplementary Data 1 SupplementaryData2Originaldataforclusteringanalysis.xlsx Supplementary Data 2 SupplementaryInformation0825.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7509875","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":510043482,"identity":"29945b7a-4edb-4acd-8d25-7d116f1dde4a","order_by":0,"name":"Shonali 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