Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Ghana

Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Ghana | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Ghana Emmanuel Akparibo, Emmanuella Asiedua Brown, Lawson Junior Oppong, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7166247/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Over the years, Malaria has been a threat to human health, especially in children and pregnant women, particularly in the sub-Saharan Africa and some part of Asia. The plasmodium parasite is transmitted to humans through the bite of infected female anopheles’ mosquitoes. The availability of mosquitoes depends on several factors, including climatic changes and human interventions. In this paper, a deterministic SEIR-SEI model is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of malaria under the influence of temperature and rainfall. The nextgeneration matrix approach was applied to calculate the basic reproduction number, and the equilibrium points were analysed. The local and global sensitivity analysis showed; the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate (ϖ), human-mosquito contact rate (ς) and mosquito death rate (μv). The numerical simulations revealed that the spread of the disease is likely to maximize in months with average temperature of about 29.2°C. Applied Mathematics Epidemiology Basic reproduction number plasmodium falciparum mathematical modelling endemic sensitivity analysis Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7166247","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":487914702,"identity":"9fbf1e25-f005-4b02-8135-f8783375a715","order_by":0,"name":"Emmanuel 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