Copula Based Joint Flood Frequency Analysis: the Case of Guder River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Copula Based Joint Flood Frequency Analysis: the Case of Guder River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Copula Based Joint Flood Frequency Analysis: the Case of Guder River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Mesfin Mamo Haile, Rakes Khosa This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study of univariate frequency of hydrological extremes is well established in developing countries such as Ethiopia. However, the design of hydrological and hydraulic systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the flood event's characteristics, such as volumes, peaks, time of occurrence, and duration. The majority of researches use a univariate approach rather than a more realistic approach that acknowledges the multivariate nature of the underlying phenomenology. In addition to the uncertainty involved with the occurrence in both space and time, these events may frequently bear various degrees of association. As a result, the major objective of this study is to address the problem of quantifying flood events in terms of frequency of occurrence utilizing the 'Copula' based bivariate approach to analyze the joint distributions of associated flood variables with a special focus on two Guder River stations in Ethiopia. Using a 'Theory of Runs' based on a set threshold flow value, the concept was applied to flood parameters such as flood peaks and volume. Various bivariate copulas from Archimedean families were used and compared with various statistical and graphical tests. The Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard copulas were chosen as the best fit for the flood peak and volume for stations 1 and 2, respectively. The chosen copula approach was used to determine the joint cumulative distribution, conditional distribution, and return periods required for hydrologic design. Various primary, secondary, and conditional return durations were computed and compared, and some correlations between them were established. Joint Flood frequency Copula Probability distribution Guder River Ethiopia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2728037","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":187074077,"identity":"d8d9f50b-9ab6-49b7-a4e8-83a317a780b0","order_by":0,"name":"Mesfin Mamo Haile","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCDwlgirH58c8/NiBG4wECOhhnQLQwHzNmbEgDCTQQ1gKh2RKkGRsOg5l4tei2tz9seLhjm7xue4+BceGO83Zr2w8DbamxicalxezMGcOGxDO3DbedOWPweOaZ28nbziQCtRxLy23ApeVGDvuDxLbbjNtu5BgY8LDdTjY7ANQCdCFuLfefP2wAarEHaZHgYTuXbHb+IQEtNxgMQVoSt91IS5DmbTtgZ3aDkC1ncsBagF44fMxwxpnkBLMbQFsS8Pnl+PGHjT/bbttuO97Y/OBDhZ292fn0hw8+1Njg1IIBEsEqE4hVDgL2pCgeBaNgFIyCkQEAf5xzsUBYs5YAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ambo University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mesfin","middleName":"Mamo","lastName":"Haile","suffix":""},{"id":187074082,"identity":"31ffb40b-3fd7-452b-8fa4-121645158b89","order_by":1,"name":"Rakes Khosa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology Delhi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rakes","middleName":"","lastName":"Khosa","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2023-03-23 14:14:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":34974176,"identity":"3bb76738-e217-4485-a090-770eedf165f6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-03-29 11:14:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":976233,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"BlindedManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2728037/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eCopula Based Joint Flood Frequency Analysis: the Case of Guder River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Joint Flood frequency, Copula, Probability distribution, Guder River, Ethiopia","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe study of univariate frequency of hydrological extremes is well established in developing countries such as Ethiopia. However, the design of hydrological and hydraulic systems necessitates a thorough understanding of the flood event's characteristics, such as volumes, peaks, time of occurrence, and duration. The majority of researches use a univariate approach rather than a more realistic approach that acknowledges the multivariate nature of the underlying phenomenology. In addition to the uncertainty involved with the occurrence in both space and time, these events may frequently bear various degrees of association. As a result, the major objective of this study is to address the problem of quantifying flood events in terms of frequency of occurrence utilizing the 'Copula' based bivariate approach to analyze the joint distributions of associated flood variables with a special focus on two Guder River stations in Ethiopia. Using a 'Theory of Runs' based on a set threshold flow value, the concept was applied to flood parameters such as flood peaks and volume. Various bivariate copulas from Archimedean families were used and compared with various statistical and graphical tests. The Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard copulas were chosen as the best fit for the flood peak and volume for stations 1 and 2, respectively. The chosen copula approach was used to determine the joint cumulative distribution, conditional distribution, and return periods required for hydrologic design. Various primary, secondary, and conditional return durations were computed and compared, and some correlations between them were established.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Copula Based Joint Flood Frequency Analysis: the Case of Guder River, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2023-03-29 11:14:15","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2728037/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ca2606ce-690c-4498-a479-978bc03e0951","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 29th, 2023","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2023-04-16T10:29:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2023-03-29 11:14:15","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-2728037","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-2728037","identity":"rs-2728037","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"J0_U0BvcaRcwD8yVFaRlm","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}