Trend Prediction of Carbon Peak in China’s Animal Husbandry Based on the Empirical Analysis of 31 Provinces in China

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020, this paper examines the affecting factors of carbon emissions from animal husbandry from aspects of environmental technology, economic structure, economic scale and population size, and calculates the peaking time and amount of the carbon emissions in China’s animal husbandry by predicting the carbon emissions in different scenarios. The results show that: (1) According to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, with other affecting factors predetermined , there is an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between carbon emissions from China’s animal husbandry and GDP per capita, with a GDP per capita of RMB 180,000 at the turning point; (2) Most provinces in China are expected to achieve carbon peak in animal husbandry by 2030, and the country is expected to reach peak carbon emissions in animal husbandry by 2026; (3) Policy interventions should primarily target environmental technologies and strive to reduce carbon emissions per unit animal husbandry output value by 1.2% per year after 2020 so that China’s animal husbandry can achieve carbon peak in 2026. The conclusion of this paper is of great significance for optimizing the carbon peak and carbon neutral strategy and promoting the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China.