Predictive Modelling of Customer Response to Marketing Campaigns

In today’s data-driven marketing landscape, accurately predicting customer responses to marketing campaigns is critical for optimizing engagement and return on investment (ROI). This study utilizes a Decision Tree (DT) model to identify key factors influencing customer behaviour. Initially, the model achieved a high accuracy of 87.3% but struggled with precision and recall due to class imbalance. By applying a resampling technique, the model’s performance improved significantly, with a recall increase from 44% to 83.1% and an F1-score improvement from 49% to 74.2%. Key influential features identified include how recently a customer made a purchase, the number of days they have been a customer, and the number of previous campaigns they responded to. The study highlights the DT model’s interpretability, making it a practical tool for marketing professionals to improve campaign effectiveness and customer targeting.