Harnessing WRF Numerical Weather Prediction for Enhanced Flood and Damage Forecasting in Urban Environments

Harnessing WRF Numerical Weather Prediction for Enhanced Flood and Damage Forecasting in Urban Environments | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Harnessing WRF Numerical Weather Prediction for Enhanced Flood and Damage Forecasting in Urban Environments Sakineh Koohi, Asghar Azizian, Mohammad Saeid Najafi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7823862/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Accurate flood and damage forecasting is critical for mitigating the devastating impacts of floods, which globally affect millions and cause substantial economic losses. This study evaluates the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating precipitation for flood forecasting and direct damage estimation in the Poldokhtar basin, Iran. By testing 87 WRF configurations, optimal schemes (e.g., WSM3, Kessler, Grell 3D, and YSU) were identified for accurate precipitation and flood simulation. Coupled with the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models, WRF outputs facilitated robust flood hydrograph and hydraulic simulations, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency above 0.85 and peak discharge errors below 15%. Bias correction using quantile mapping significantly enhanced peak flood accuracy, reducing errors to as low as 1.25% for the 2018 event. A depth-damage curve was developed, showed strong correlations (CC > 0.92) with observed flood damages, and the average damage estimates ranging from 41% to 70% across residential areas for the 2016–2019 events. The results demonstrate that integrating WRF with hydrological and hydraulic models provides a reliable and practical framework for flood forecasting and damage assessment in urban environments, offering valuable insights for flood risk management. Flood management Urban hydrology Damage Estimation Flood risk Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Nov, 2025 Editor invited by journal 13 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 14 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 13 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7823862","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":548277476,"identity":"880ffd20-ab5d-4261-9657-599bc9019c39","order_by":0,"name":"Sakineh Koohi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"IKIU: Imam Khomeini International University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sakineh","middleName":"","lastName":"Koohi","suffix":""},{"id":548277477,"identity":"195fcaf6-7108-4b3d-9bb5-20dbfd466002","order_by":1,"name":"Asghar 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