Analysis of ecological vulnerability and driving factors in the context of global climate change: A case study of Himalayan transboundary landscape

Analysis of ecological vulnerability and driving factors in the context of global climate change: A case study of Himalayan transboundary landscape | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Analysis of ecological vulnerability and driving factors in the context of global climate change: A case study of Himalayan transboundary landscape Kun Zhu, Yiwei Zhu, Zhenyu Zhao, Yuxiao Du, Yu Wang, Xin Guo, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4601311/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Under the dual influence of global climate change and human activities, the carrying capacity and buffering capacity of the Himalayan transboundary alpine ecosystem are being severely tested. This study focused on the transboundary nature reserves and national parks located in the Himalayas, which include Qomolangma National Nature Preserve, Manaslu Conservation Area, Langtang National Park, Gaurishankar Conservation Area, Sagarmatha National Park, Makalu Barun National Park and Kanchenjunga Conservation Area. Specifically, based on the analysis of land use changes and landscape pattern characteristics during 2000, 2010, and 2020, the main influencing factors of the landscape pattern changes were explored. Additionally, the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) model was further utilized to construct the ecological vulnerability assessment system. The results indicated that: 1) The land use types in the study area have undergone changed, with notable changes observed in bare land and construction land. Glacier to bare land (512.00 km 2 ), bare land to glacial or water area (127.49km 2 , 114.33 km 2 ), shrub to construction land (72.91 km 2 ), and water area to bare land (69.89 km 2 ) were the main types of land transformation in this area. 2) The fragmentation level of ecological landscape types showed a trend of initial increase followed by decrease. The patch dominance of bare land was much higher than that of other land types, and the fragmentation degree was lower on the north slope than on the south slope. 3) From a temporal perspective, the regional ecological vulnerability was decreased. From a spatial perspective, the ecological vulnerability of the southern slope was generally lower than that of the northern slope, indicating a better ecological environment on the south slope. 4) The annual mean temperature, population density, and annual precipitation are the main factors affecting PD; annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are the main factors affecting LPI; annual precipitation, NDVI, and slope are the main factors affecting LSI; annual precipitation and slope are the main factors affecting CONTAG; annual precipitation, NDVI, and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) are the main factors affecting SHEI. This study focused on the landscape pattern and ecological vulnerability around the world's highest peak, Mount Everest. Providing a typical sample for transboundary cooperation in ecological conservation areas in the Himalayan region and better promoting sustainable development in transboundary areas. Himalayan transboundary landscape Ecological vulnerability Driving factors Global climate change Transboundary conservation area Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterials.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Feb, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 14 Oct, 2024 Reviews received at journal 11 Oct, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Sep, 2024 Reviews received at journal 29 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Jul, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 16 Jul, 2024 Editor invited by journal 23 Jun, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 20 Jun, 2024 First submitted to journal 18 Jun, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4601311","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":324371748,"identity":"e74c6640-e43c-4b58-808a-d413a239775f","order_by":0,"name":"Kun Zhu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kun","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhu","suffix":""},{"id":324371749,"identity":"fe4f70c2-be7c-4520-b761-2330e9983d95","order_by":1,"name":"Yiwei Zhu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shanghai Normal 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