Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 11 March 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios Authors : Huilin Liu 0009-0000-8157-3879 , Qing Liu , Xiaojuan Cui [email protected] , Jianjun Peng [email protected] , Sini Zhou , Fuli Wang , Lizhen Zhong , … Show All … , Chengzhong Yang , Xia Wang , Ling Shen , Haifeng Zheng , Xudong Yuan , Lixia Chen , and Chenglun Zhang Show Fewer Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174167512.28775547/v1 Published Ecology and Evolution Version of record Peer review timeline 474 views 230 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Global climate change exerts profound impacts on biodiversity and species distribution, potentially leading to habitat contraction and species extinction. As an endemic vulnerable species listed under China’s National Class II Protected Animals, the tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophus) lacks comprehensive predictions regarding its future distribution under climate change. This study employs an optimized MaxEnt model integrated with 19 climatic variables and environmental factors (topography, vegetation, and anthropogenic disturbances) to systematically predict the species’ potential habitat distribution across China. Through parameter screening of 248 combinations using the Kuenm package, the optimal model configuration (FC=QH, RM=2.5) achieved exceptional predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.977 ± 0.002). Key findings include: (1) Current suitable habitats span 145.98×104 km², predominantly clustered in the Sichuan-Guizhou-Yunnan mountainous regions and the Qinling-Daba-Wuling ranges; (2) Annual precipitation (Bio12, 33.2%), elevation (18.7%), slope (14.5%), temperature annual range (Bio7, 9.2%), NDVI (7.9%), and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 7.5%) emerged as critical limiting factors; (3) Projected habitat areas under future climate scenarios will contract by 21.8%-28.4%, with shrinkage concentrated in eastern low-elevation zones and expansion toward the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; (4) Habitat centroids exhibit significant westward shifts, reaching 141.8 km under SSP585 (2090s). This study provides theoretical foundations for conserving Elaphodus cephalophus genetic resources and climate-adaptive management, emphasizing the urgency to prioritize ecological corridor construction in western Sichuan-southeastern Tibet. Supplementary Material File (prediction of potential suitable habitats for elaphodus cephalophus in china under climate change scenarios.docx) Download 3.03 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 11 March 2025 Peer review timeline Published Ecology and Evolution Version of Record 25 Sep 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Ecology and Evolution Keywords comparative description ecosystem population ecology statistical theoretical theory vertebrate Authors Affiliations Huilin Liu 0009-0000-8157-3879 Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Qing Liu Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Xiaojuan Cui [email protected] Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Jianjun Peng [email protected] Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Sini Zhou Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Fuli Wang Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Lizhen Zhong Hunan University of Science and Technology View all articles by this author Chengzhong Yang Chongqing Normal University View all articles by this author Xia Wang Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Ling Shen Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Haifeng Zheng Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Xudong Yuan Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Lixia Chen Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Chenglun Zhang Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Nature Reserve Management Affairs Center View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 474 views 230 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Huilin Liu, Qing Liu, Xiaojuan Cui, et al. Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Elaphodus cephalophus in China Under Climate Change Scenarios. Authorea . 11 March 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174167512.28775547/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.174167512.28775547/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'9ff6c07dadb858f4',t:'MTc3OTM5OTc1Ng=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();