Birds in a changing climate: A global meta-analysis of weather effects on avian reproduction

Birds in a changing climate: A global meta-analysis of weather effects on avian reproduction | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Oikos This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 13 May 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Birds in a changing climate: A global meta-analysis of weather effects on avian reproduction Authors : Holly Todaro 0009-0001-5051-2018 [email protected] , Mark Nessel [email protected] , Addison Galante [email protected] , Aryanna North [email protected] , Courtney Duchardt [email protected] , and Scott Loss 0000-0002-8753-2995 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003262/v1 Under Review Oikos Peer review timeline 103 views 15 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change is recognized as a key factor driving global changes in biodiversity. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and severe weather events pose significant threats for various taxa; however, avian species face unique challenges as many aspects of their life cycles, including breeding, migration, and non-breeding periods, are intricately linked to specific ecological conditions. For species in temperate ecosystems, there is only a short period during the annual cycle when conditions are suitable for reproduction. Stochastic and long-term changes in weather and climate can strongly influence components of avian reproduction such as egg laying date, nest success, and survival of young. These effects become more complex when accounting for the biomes species occupy and their life history traits, making it critical to synthesize existing data to refine predictions about the likely impacts of climate change and to inform conservation efforts. To address this, we conducted global vote counting analyses and meta-analyses to assess how weather and climate influence components of avian reproduction. Our vote counting analyses revealed greater breeding season average temperatures were strongly associated with earlier laying and hatch dates. Breeding season precipitation had mixed effects, with strong positive effects on breeding success but weak negative effects on productivity, highlighting the complexity of its influence. Our meta-analyses identified three significant overarching relationships across the published literature: (1) greater average breeding season temperatures were associated with earlier laying dates, with the strongest effects observed in species with minimal nest types; (2) increased breeding season temperatures were linked to reduced nestling survival; and (3) greater breeding season precipitation negatively affected nestling survival. These results highlight important effects of weather and climate on components of avian reproduction, while also revealing the complexity and context-dependent nature of these influences, emphasizing the need for conservation strategies that account for shifts in weather and climate. Supplementary Material File (supporting information_weather effects on avian reproduction.docx) supporting information_weather effects on avian reproduction Download 227.00 KB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 13 May 2026 Peer review timeline Under Review Oikos 13 May 2026 Under Review 13 May 2026 Under Review 13 May 2026 Under Review 13 May 2026 Under Review 13 May 2026 Under Review 13 May 2026 Under Review Collection Oikos Keywords avian ecology breeding success climate change reproductive timing reproductive success weather variability Authors Affiliations Holly Todaro 0009-0001-5051-2018 [email protected] Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States View all articles by this author Mark Nessel [email protected] Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States View all articles by this author Addison Galante [email protected] Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States View all articles by this author Aryanna North [email protected] Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States View all articles by this author Courtney Duchardt [email protected] View all articles by this author Scott Loss 0000-0002-8753-2995 [email protected] Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, United States View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 103 views 15 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Holly Todaro, Mark Nessel, Addison Galante, et al. Birds in a changing climate: A global meta-analysis of weather effects on avian reproduction. Authorea . 13 May 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/authorea.15003262/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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