Vulnerability Analysis of Tailings Dam Failure Based on DEMATEL-ISM

Abstract To effectively reduce the risk of tailings dam failure accident, the vulnerability risk of tailings dam failure was systematically analyzed by using the analysis method of Decision-making Trial and Laboratory (DEMATEL) combined with the Interpretative Structural Modeling Method (ISM). A dam failure impact factor evaluation index system was constructed, and the DEMATEL method was used to study the mutual influence relationship between risk factors and determine the key risk factors and outcome factors; the ISM method was used to divide the hierarchy of each influence factor and determine the comprehensive influence relationship of risk factors, and then the tailings dam failure risk evolution model was established. The results show that: whether the dam construction material meets the specification (X6), insufficient safety superelevation (X11), the reservoir water level (X16), and the flood discharge capacity of the flood discharge facility (X17) are direct factors, which directly lead to the occurrence of dam failure; the professional quality of safety personnel (X3), the depth of the infiltration line (X13) and a series of other factors are intermediate factors, which conduct and accumulate the risk; slope instability (X25) and the seismic intensity (X34) are essential causal factors. The key control and prevention of the essential factors can help to reduce the risk of dam failure from the root. The results of the study can provide a better perspective and direction for reducing the occurrence of dam failure accidents.