Evolution of infrastructure burden for US cities by 2100

Evolution of infrastructure burden for US cities by 2100 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Evolution of infrastructure burden for US cities by 2100 Uttara Sutradhar, Lauryn Spearing, Bo Zou, Mikhail Chester, Sybil Derrible This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5505742/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In 2020, 40% of U.S. cities were losing population. As people emigrate, maintaining the infrastructure once built for a growing population can burden the remaining residents. Using population projections, we forecast future infrastructure (following current population growth) up to 2100 and examine infrastructure burden trends across the U.S. in 2050 and 2100. By analyzing per capita residential built-up volume (RBUV) and roadway length (RL), we find that 53% of U.S. cities (out of 30,498) will face an increasing burden by 2100. The extent of this burden varies, with low-density cities being more affected than high-density cities. Around 14% of these cities may initially experience a decreasing burden, only to face an increasing burden before the end of this century. Regardless of their own population trends, cities need to rethink their planning policies to minimize existing or future infrastructure burden. While depopulation is often viewed negatively, it is inevitable. The narrative around depopulation and existing policies that focus solely on growth must change as it presents an opportunity to rethink how infrastructure is planned and managed. Physical sciences/Engineering/Civil engineering Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Depopulating cities Infrastructure burden Roadways Built volume Infrastructure management Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files DIManuscriptSupp.docx Supplementary Information for Evolution of infrastructure burden for US cities by 2100 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5505742","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":399075342,"identity":"152c89f2-bec0-4e3a-96d8-f3b18aa8ab80","order_by":0,"name":"Uttara 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