Climatic factors and host species composition at hibernation sites drive the incidence of bat fungal disease

ABSTRACT Emerging infectious diseases pose a serious threat to wildlife, and their occurrence will likely be further exacerbated due to climate change. The aim of our study was to investigate whether the occurrence of White-nose disease (WND), a fungal disease of hibernating bats, can be predicted using local climatic conditions and host species abundance at hibernation sites. In addition, we used our model to predict areas potentially at risk if the pathogen is introduced and investigated how the potential distribution of WND may shift in the future due to climate change. We employed logistic regression as part of our ecological niche modelling approach, integrating climate and census data as explanatory variables, along with WND status (the response variable) obtained from 448 hibernacula. This approach allowed us to predict regions at elevated risk of WND by applying these climatic variables to current global climatic conditions and a climate change scenario. A model incorporating data on mean annual surface temperature, precipitation, and three host species reliably predicted WND occurrence in Europe. This model demonstrated robust transferability beyond Europe, as confirmed by both theoretical and empirical assessments (e.g., accurately predicting the observed mortality events in North America). We identified several high-risk areas in the southern hemisphere and demonstrate that climate change may cause a remarkable shift in the distribution range of WND. Our results highlight the importance of environmental factors in controlling the manifestation of disease in localities where both the pathogen and suitable hosts are present. We pinpoint several areas requiring increased surveillance and precautions to avoid the introduction of the pathogen, and show that climate change has massive potential to reshape and expand these areas, putting new populations at risk.