Analysis of Factors Affecting the Population Growth Rate in Rural Areas of Khorasan Razavi Province Based on a MGWR Model

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Population Growth Rate in Rural Areas of Khorasan Razavi Province Based on a MGWR Model | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analysis of Factors Affecting the Population Growth Rate in Rural Areas of Khorasan Razavi Province Based on a MGWR Model Hossein Aghajani, Farnaz Sarkari This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4677867/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Rural abandonment is a critical demographic issue that has impacted various countries across the world, including Iran, and specifically Khorasan Razavi Province. This research aims to pinpoint factors affecting rural population growth rates within this region. To overcome the limitations of the GWR model, its advanced form, known as Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression, has been introduced. In this study, the average rural population growth rate of the province's districts between 2006 to 2016 was used as the dependent variable, and 38 variables across socio-demographic, environmental, and infrastructural sectors as independent variables. Results indicate a significant spatial autocorrelation within the rural population growth, suggesting that local regression models are more apt for examining spatial variable relationships. In analyzing local growth factors through MGWR, influencing variables included literacy rates, the average population of villages per district, and the percentage of rural health houses have had a positive impact, while variables included the percentage of the working-age population, the percentage of villages with fewer than 100 residents per district and distance from Wells have had a negative impact on rural population growth rate in the province. rural population growth rate multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) spatial autocorrelation spatial heterogeneity influencing factors Khorasan Razavi Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4677867","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":332024174,"identity":"71ed993e-53e5-4a01-b3f2-ed28f6ed90a4","order_by":0,"name":"Hossein Aghajani","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAyBmZmBgA5LMBxDCCcRpYUNSR4QWEOAxIM5h5gzMj18X1PDJm7PzfPzwo8Iun4H98AOGh3twa7FsYDOznnGMzXBnM+9myZ4zyZYNPGkGDAnP8DjsAIOZMQ8bG+OGw7wbpBnbDgBdlwP0ywF8Wti/GfP8Y7PfcJjn8W/Gf0At/G8IaeExfszbxpYI1MImzdgA1CJByJbDPGXMvH1syRsOs5lZ9hxLNmCTeGZwAK+W4+2bP/N8O2a74fzhxzd+1NgZ8PMnP3z4A48WYKSwSTAwHEMIAGOVAZ8GsKYPDAw1BNSMglEwCkbBiAYAzWZLintJ4lEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hossein","middleName":"","lastName":"Aghajani","suffix":""},{"id":332024175,"identity":"7cb2957e-154e-4be3-a646-bc96aaa193a6","order_by":1,"name":"Farnaz Sarkari","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Farnaz","middleName":"","lastName":"Sarkari","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-03 05:53:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4677867/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4677867/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":64040525,"identity":"54b2fc8a-5f88-4049-ad67-da63e03d45ca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-09-05 12:46:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2310528,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FactorsAffectingNameDetaials.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4677867/v1_covered_0bf5e2da-9dc4-4cd2-a1c4-cf893efc63ec.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Analysis of Factors Affecting the Population Growth Rate in Rural Areas of Khorasan Razavi Province Based on a MGWR Model","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"rural population growth rate, multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity, influencing factors, Khorasan Razavi","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4677867/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4677867/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRural abandonment is a critical demographic issue that has impacted various countries across the world, including Iran, and specifically Khorasan Razavi Province. 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