Trend analysis of Atmospheric and Oceanic variables and their compound effect on Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea

Trend analysis of Atmospheric and Oceanic variables and their compound effect on Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trend analysis of Atmospheric and Oceanic variables and their compound effect on Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea Anupam Kumar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9191287/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study of atmospheric and oceanic variables is important for understanding the changing patterns and drivers of the large-scale environmental circulation. In the present study, we analyze the annual trend and time series of the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for the depth of the mixed layer and the maximum thermocline and key atmospheric and oceanic variables controlling the interannual variability of their compound effect on the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and Potential Intensity (PI) of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The dataset used for the present study is the ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis fifth generation) for the atmospheric variables at the spatial resolution of 0.25 grid size monthly data at the surface for 2D and at pressure levels for the 3D and the output of HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) with the CFSR (Climate Forcing and System Reanalysis 2) surface forcing and monthly climatology for the lateral boundary forcing at the open boundary for the period 2005–2020. The model output has a resolution of 0.08 and a daily temporal resolution. This study concludes that the OHC of the mixed layer (MLD) and thermocline (MTD) exhibit inverse interannual trends: OHCMLD and OHCMTD increase, and OHCMTD increases at a higher rate, which is significant at the 95% level. The GPI and PI have significant spatial variation. The east-south region of AS, extending to 57 °E in longitude and 12 °N in latitude, is evolving as a region favorable to cyclogenesis, while the north-west, beyond 12 °N to 22 °N and 65 °E, is evolving as a region with diminished cyclogenesis. Ocean Heat Content Mixed Layer Arabian Sea Cyclogenesis Potential Intensity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 22 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9191287","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":619992042,"identity":"577c7cca-f031-4fbd-af62-048eb2b56ce9","order_by":0,"name":"Anupam Kumar","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Indian Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anupam","middleName":"","lastName":"Kumar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-22 12:53:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9191287/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9191287/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106727608,"identity":"7e099e91-b36e-4476-ad6e-c7e2123a500f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-12 18:39:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1533128,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"appp2intro.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9191287/v1_covered_e83554f6-b2ee-4906-b54b-d10c252e6355.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Trend analysis of Atmospheric and Oceanic variables and their compound effect on Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"ocean-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"odyn","sideBox":"Learn more about [Ocean Dynamics](https://link.springer.com/journal/10236)","snPcode":"10236","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/10236/3","title":"Ocean Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Ocean Heat Content, Mixed Layer, Arabian Sea, Cyclogenesis, Potential Intensity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9191287/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9191287/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe study of atmospheric and oceanic variables is important for understanding the changing patterns and drivers of the large-scale environmental circulation. In the present study, we analyze the annual trend and time series of the Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for the depth of the mixed layer and the maximum thermocline and key atmospheric and oceanic variables controlling the interannual variability of their compound effect on the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and Potential Intensity (PI) of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The dataset used for the present study is the ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis fifth generation) for the atmospheric variables at the spatial resolution of 0.25 grid size monthly data at the surface for 2D and at pressure levels for the 3D and the output of HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) with the CFSR (Climate Forcing and System Reanalysis 2) surface forcing and monthly climatology for the lateral boundary forcing at the open boundary for the period 2005\u0026ndash;2020. The model output has a resolution of 0.08 and a daily temporal resolution. 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