Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry of Hunan Province and Peak Prediction

The construction industry is a key energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter, and its green low-carbon transformation is critical to achieving China's "dual carbon" strategy. This study focuses on carbon emissions from the construction industry in Hunan Province, central China, using data from 2005 to 2022. An improved STIRPAT extended model combined with ridge regression is applied to identify key driving factors, and a CNN-LSTM-Attention hybrid model is constructed for multi-scenario carbon peak prediction from 2023 to 2040. The results show that industrial scale, urbanization rate, and energy intensity are the top three influencing factors, with energy intensity being the only significant inhibitory factor. Carbon emissions will continue to rise without peak under the high-carbon scenario, peak in 2035 under the baseline scenario, and peak in 2030 under the low-carbon scenario. The low-carbon scenario is the optimal path to meet Hunan's 2030 carbon peak target for the construction industry. Targeted policy suggestions are proposed for regional low-carbon development.