Land conservation and the renewable energy transition are simultaneously possible in Brazil

Abstract Brazil is crucial to tackling climate change and halting biodiversity loss. Yet given its intention to rely on biofuels for clean energy, there is a growing risk that uncoordinated policy leads these goals to compete with each other. Here we explore their interplay through long-term energy scenarios based on a spatially explicit energy system model. We find that in a baseline scenario where Brazil doubles biofuel use by 2050, substantial dedicated land is needed, converting mostly degraded pastures. More importantly, with appropriate planning, renewable energy combined with biofuels can meet demand in highly electrified systems where emissions decline by 40%-91% without conflicting with conservation-relevant lands and without a noticeable effect on energy system costs. Finally, these conservation-relevant lands can be reforested and thereby contribute up to 15.43 Gton of carbon stored, showing that climate change mitigation and ecosystem recovery can be synergistic.