Pollutants Exceedances Modeling using Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes: A Case Study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020

Pollutants Exceedances Modeling using Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes: A Case Study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Pollutants Exceedances Modeling using Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes: A Case Study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020 Karen Melissa Gómez Montoya, Biviana Marcela Suárez Sierra, Carlos A. Taimal This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3778591/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this paper, we present an alternative method to model the exceedances of the Colombian and global environmental standards for three pollutants, PM 2.5 , PM 10 y O 3 , for the cities Colombia of Bogota´ and Medell´ın during the period of 2018-2020. The aforementioned is done using a stochastic model denominated the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process with estimation employing Bayesian com putational methods. Through the usage of this methodology, it is intended to fit models with a highly predictive component for the case of Colombia and to allow interpretability through the parameters. Said methodology will allow for decisions to be made in terms of public policies. The best found models will, in the end, be all those that take into consideration the presence of two change-points or instants of variation. The change-points are given by the behavior of the country’s climate, public policies to mitigate pollution, the mandatory quarantine because of COVID-19 and infrastructure projects. Pollution Modeling Colombia Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Change-point Detection PM10 PM2.5 O3 Bayesian Estimation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3778591","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":267002689,"identity":"9f3b9ff5-d88d-4921-a337-44e3c0018dc7","order_by":0,"name":"Karen Melissa Gómez Montoya","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"EAFIT University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Karen","middleName":"Melissa Gómez","lastName":"Montoya","suffix":""},{"id":267002690,"identity":"89a2494f-ded7-45ab-93f3-3f8a497a4480","order_by":1,"name":"Biviana Marcela Suárez Sierra","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAziLvYGBoQLMTSBWC88BBoYzBgakaJEAqjzDQIQWc7HjzyR+7rGxl5/5+OCHAwV/GPjZcwwYflTg1mI5O8dMsudZGrPB7bRkiQNAh0n2vDFg7DmDx2G3c9gkeA4cZjOQzjGQ/gDUYnAjx4CZsQ2flvRnkn8O/OeRn3n+8w+QLfaEtSSYSfMcOCDBcIOHDewwAwkCWoB+MbaWOZBsYHAmzczigIExj8SZZwUH8fnFXDr94c03B+zs5dsPP75x4I+cHH978sYH+EIMA/CAiAMkaBgFo2AUjIJRgAUAAKrdT0YoNpY0AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"EAFIT University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Biviana","middleName":"Marcela Suárez","lastName":"Sierra","suffix":""},{"id":267002691,"identity":"fe85f631-9ed4-47ac-a96a-75d2587857fd","order_by":2,"name":"Carlos A. 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The aforementioned is done using a stochastic \u0026nbsp;model denominated the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process with estimation employing Bayesian com putational methods. Through the usage of this methodology, it is intended to fit models with a highly \u0026nbsp;predictive component for the case of Colombia and to allow interpretability through the parameters. \u0026nbsp;Said methodology will allow for decisions to be made in terms of public policies. The best found models \u0026nbsp;will, in the end, be all those that take into consideration the presence of two change-points or instants \u0026nbsp;of variation. 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