Innovation and the Sustainability Gap in Sub Saharan Africa under Regime Shifts and Transition Dynamics

Innovation and the Sustainability Gap in Sub Saharan Africa under Regime Shifts and Transition Dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Innovation and the Sustainability Gap in Sub Saharan Africa under Regime Shifts and Transition Dynamics Benedict Afful, Kassim Alabani, Francis Taale, Eric Abokyi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9347912/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines whether innovation capacity can close the sustainability gap in Sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the relationship between innovation, institutional quality, and environmental outcomes across 47 countries from 2005 to 2024. Using a comprehensive dynamic panel framework combining fixed-effects, quantile regression, and System GMM estimation, we find that innovation alone does not significantly reduce emissions intensity or promote absolute decarbonization. However, institutional quality emerges as a critical moderating factor, with voice and accountability showing particularly strong positive effects on environmental outcomes. The analysis reveals significant structural breaks around 2015, coinciding with the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals, suggesting that policy regimes matter for innovation-environment linkages. Quantile regression results indicate heterogeneous effects across the emissions distribution, with innovation and institutional factors showing stronger effects at higher quantiles. These findings challenge the assumption that expanding innovation capacity will automatically deliver environmental benefits, underscoring the need to align innovation systems explicitly with sustainability objectives and strengthen democratic governance institutions. JEL Classification: O30, Q54, Q55, O13, O44, Q56 Innovation sustainability gap decarbonization institutional quality Sub-Saharan Africa regime shifts System GMM quantile regression Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 20 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 15 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 14 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 12 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9347912","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627868465,"identity":"f40f4163-ebb8-43d7-a767-29d422f8f02d","order_by":0,"name":"Benedict Afful","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cape Coast","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benedict","middleName":"","lastName":"Afful","suffix":""},{"id":627868467,"identity":"feb57d70-9ca9-47fe-8505-271d10388156","order_by":1,"name":"Kassim Alabani","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cape Coast","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kassim","middleName":"","lastName":"Alabani","suffix":""},{"id":627868468,"identity":"8563b461-60df-477e-85b6-c8f1a8b9cc2c","order_by":2,"name":"Francis Taale","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cape Coast","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francis","middleName":"","lastName":"Taale","suffix":""},{"id":627868469,"identity":"73525966-3de1-4132-b237-f83cf6ccbc82","order_by":3,"name":"Eric Abokyi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cape Coast","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eric","middleName":"","lastName":"Abokyi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-07 16:53:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9347912/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9347912/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107951816,"identity":"03a995bc-b761-443f-8c7a-4c1cf41e9e99","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 01:40:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1116105,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PaperSustainabilityGapComplete.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9347912/v1_covered_21e25848-6ccf-431f-a2f5-d8a628d93de3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Innovation and the Sustainability Gap in Sub Saharan Africa under Regime Shifts and Transition Dynamics","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Innovation, sustainability gap, decarbonization, institutional quality, Sub-Saharan Africa, regime shifts, System GMM, quantile regression","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9347912/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9347912/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper examines whether innovation capacity can close the sustainability gap in Sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the relationship between innovation, institutional quality, and environmental outcomes across 47 countries from 2005 to 2024. 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