Navigating Aid and Climate Pressures to Achieve Food Security in Somalia

Navigating Aid and Climate Pressures to Achieve Food Security in Somalia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Navigating Aid and Climate Pressures to Achieve Food Security in Somalia Amir Mohamud Mohamed, Abdulfatah Mohamed Abdullahi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food security in Somalia remains a critical issue due to prolonged conflict, climate shocks, and economic instability. Recurrent droughts, floods, and locust infestations have severely damaged agricultural output, while conflict restricts market access and humanitarian assistance. As a result, millions face food shortages and high malnutrition rates, especially among children. Therefore, this study investigates the relationships between foreign aid, climate factors, and food security in Somalia using time-series data from 1990 to 2020. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) is employed to assess both short- and long-run dynamics, while Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) is used as robust. The long-run ARDL results reveal that food aid, average rainfall have a significant negative impact on food security in Somalia, while average temperature shows a negative, insignificant coefficient. Conversely, humanitarian aid significant positive impact on food security in Somalia. Moreover, the short-run findings show that food aid, humanitarian aid, and average temperature exhibit a positive, insignificant coefficient. While average rainfall shows a negative, insignificant coefficient. DOLS demonstrates coefficients similar to those of the ARDL model. The results of Granger causality reveal several unidirectional causal links. First, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from food security to food aid; humanitarian aid Granger-causes food security. Additionally, there is a unidirectional causality from food aid to average temperature. Furthermore, average temperature Granger-causes rainfall, indicating a climatic interdependency. Conversely, the analysis found no significant Granger causality between average temperature and food security, average rainfall and food security, humanitarian aid and food aid, average rainfall and food aid, average temperature and food aid, and average rainfall and humanitarian aid. Policy makers should focus on enhancing food aid transparency, aligning humanitarian aid with development, investing in climate-resilient farming, and promoting climate-smart agriculture. foreign aid climate change food security ARDL Somalia Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6917476","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":475532688,"identity":"3ccfd77c-2f47-4696-8e7a-8bfba220fba0","order_by":0,"name":"Amir Mohamud Mohamed","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgYgcQDEMv/xoQJIMTM3EK3FQHLGGZAWRkJawACiRZq3DW4IbsA/7XDbpxsVd+R1ZyRvMOadVxvN3w7U8qNiG04tErcTm2fnnHlmuO1GWkHi3G3Hc2ccZmxg7DlzG7c1QC3MuW2HGbfdyDE48HbbsdwGoBZmxjbcWuShWuyBWgwbeOccy51PSIsBVEsiUIsxI29DTe4GQloMQVpyzhxO3nbmWRnjjGMHcjcCtRzE5xe52+mPmXMqDttuO568jeFDTV3uvPOHDz74UYHH+2jgMJg8QLR6IKgjRfEoGAWjYBSMEAAAgodm6LLbd7gAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amir","middleName":"Mohamud","lastName":"Mohamed","suffix":""},{"id":475532689,"identity":"a1694244-553a-47d0-8c92-e4435a35926f","order_by":1,"name":"Abdulfatah Mohamed Abdullahi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdulfatah","middleName":"Mohamed","lastName":"Abdullahi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-17 21:38:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85396394,"identity":"4d4a37ce-f6ec-4073-8e4e-9ff7c7d1965d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-25 11:14:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":424901,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManucriptwithAuthorsinformations1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6917476/v1_covered_d031325e-dbf5-4505-9eb4-e29803a3ca96.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Navigating Aid and Climate Pressures to Achieve Food Security in Somalia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"foreign aid, climate change, food security, ARDL, Somalia","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eFood security in Somalia remains a critical issue due to prolonged conflict, climate shocks, and economic instability. Recurrent droughts, floods, and locust infestations have severely damaged agricultural output, while conflict restricts market access and humanitarian assistance. As a result, millions face food shortages and high malnutrition rates, especially among children. Therefore, this study investigates the relationships between foreign aid, climate factors, and food security in Somalia using time-series data from 1990 to 2020. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) is employed to assess both short- and long-run dynamics, while Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) is used as robust. The long-run ARDL results reveal that food aid, average rainfall have a significant negative impact on food security in Somalia, while average temperature shows a negative, insignificant coefficient. Conversely, humanitarian aid significant positive impact on food security in Somalia. Moreover, the short-run findings show that food aid, humanitarian aid, and average temperature exhibit a positive, insignificant coefficient. While average rainfall shows a negative, insignificant coefficient. DOLS demonstrates coefficients similar to those of the ARDL model. The results of Granger causality reveal several unidirectional causal links. First, there is a unidirectional Granger causality from food security to food aid; humanitarian aid Granger-causes food security. Additionally, there is a unidirectional causality from food aid to average temperature. Furthermore, average temperature Granger-causes rainfall, indicating a climatic interdependency. Conversely, the analysis found no significant Granger causality between average temperature and food security, average rainfall and food security, humanitarian aid and food aid, average rainfall and food aid, average temperature and food aid, and average rainfall and humanitarian aid. Policy makers should focus on enhancing food aid transparency, aligning humanitarian aid with development, investing in climate-resilient farming, and promoting climate-smart agriculture.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Navigating Aid and Climate Pressures to Achieve Food Security in Somalia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-25 10:58:45","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6917476/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"23c992fe-c68b-4274-901e-9b5a1ff43344","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-23T07:56:56+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-25 10:58:45","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6917476","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6917476","identity":"rs-6917476","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}