Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly

Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Brief Communication Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global warming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has not yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature variability. Here we account for the influence of three main natural variability factors: El Niño, volcanism, and solar variation. The resulting adjusted data show that after 2015, global temperature rose significantly faster than in any previous 10-year period since 1945. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6079807","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Brief Communication","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":422382558,"identity":"1e13681f-535a-4c42-a3ae-afc668f507d2","order_by":0,"name":"Stefan Rahmstorf","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6786-7723","institution":"PIK","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Rahmstorf","suffix":""},{"id":422382559,"identity":"8e8d6aa5-7008-4bc3-b7df-81836b930271","order_by":1,"name":"Grant Foster","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"retired","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Grant","middleName":"","lastName":"Foster","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-21 13:15:48","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80753153,"identity":"3cc0ff5d-66b9-4942-bc74-8627bb30da22","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-16 17:03:17","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":437716,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"FosterXRahmstorfsubmitted.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6079807/v1_covered_209e5182-d9a5-4305-a4e0-70204151d2b3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6079807/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Recent record-hot years have caused a discussion whether global\r\nwarming has accelerated, but previous analysis found that acceleration has\r\nnot yet reached a 95% confidence level given the natural temperature\r\nvariability. 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